065
FXUS64 KMOB 022354
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
654 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65.
- DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT, LOWERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES CURRENTLY PLANNED. JGC/98
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARDS; IT'S
AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND LIKELY REACHING THE APPALACHIANS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
BISECTS THE LOCAL AREA, STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UP
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH NOT BRINGING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, THIS FRONT IS
HELPING TO CREATE A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
PWATS OVER OUR AREA RANGE FROM 1.3-1.5 INCHES OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO AS HIGH AS 2.1-2.4 INCHES OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA COUNTIES, UP INTO
ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. THESE STORMS HAVE
GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING
FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
PASSES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS/HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ARE STARTING TO EXIT OUR CWA TO THE EAST, CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MORE STORMS WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR EAST,
THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF FROM THE JET STREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A DRY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, HELPING TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM DURING THIS
PERIOD, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE SLOWLY
STARTS TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RETURN.
HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S,
HOWEVER, WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN, HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT INDICES MAY RISE
TO AROUND 100-105 DEGREES BY LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER THANKS TO
THE DRIER AIRMASS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS INCREASE BACK TO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST BY MIDWEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, LOWERING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR
MONDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK DROPS TO A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY AND
INTO MIDWEEK. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-65
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A 20% OR LOWER CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT TAF
SITES. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS ON MONDAY, TURNING WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT,
BRIEFLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 91 72 93 / 10 10 10 20
PENSACOLA 75 90 76 91 / 30 10 10 20
DESTIN 76 89 77 89 / 30 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 69 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 10
WAYNESBORO 69 92 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 69 89 70 90 / 0 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 70 91 70 92 / 30 10 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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