869
FXUS64 KMOB 060454
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL TREND UPWARD, REACHING AROUND 100-107 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
STARTING OFF TONIGHT WITH A BROAD OVERVIEW LOOKING AT THE MID-
LEVELS, WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERS,
ONE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, 594DM RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW US AND
ANOTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SLOW/STEADY
TRANSITION INTO A BROADER WEAKNESS REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STEADILY,
OBTAINING A BIT GREATER LCL-SURFACE INVERSION INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS GOING FOLLOWING SFC
HEATING, MORE PARTICULARLY AIDED BY SEA/BAYBREEZE COLLISIONS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECTING NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE TODAY STARTING
OFF THE DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORCED BY THE NORTHWARD DRIFTING
SEA/BAYBREEZE FROM 15-18Z, THEN GREATER AREAL COVERAGE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COAST
CLEARS OUT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM AFTERNOON PBL MIXING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE LOW 70'S/UPPER 60'S INLAND.
LOOKING BEYOND INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, QUITE
FRANKLY THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH OF THE SAME WITH LITTLE NOTABLE
CHANGES WITH THE SAME DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
WINDOWS STARTING NEAR THE COAST, ENDING INLAND. WE DO CONTINUE TO
SEE A STEADY UPTICK IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT DOES CLIMB MAX HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 105-107 RANGE IN SPOTS, BUT STILL FAR FROM
ANYTHING CONCERNING/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-AIR PATTERN DOES TRANSITION SLIGHTLY WITH THE RIDGE CENTER
PRESSING NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE DIPPING SOUTH TO JUST OFFSHORE COASTAL FL.
WHAT THIS COULD, IN PART DO IS ALLOW EAST TO WEST TROPICAL
IMPULSES TO RIDE WEST INTO THE GULF AND FIND THE WEAKNESS TOWARDS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS WILL IN TURN SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN
DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BY THE ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AT PLAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP, MOIST SOUTHERLY GULF
FLOW. CAN'T RULE OUT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE, NAMELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED/LATE END OF THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS TO IDENTIFY
ENSEMBLE SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS IN REGARDS TO A SUGGESTED
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, THAT 1) COULD REDUCE
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND 2) COULD RE-CRANK THE HEAT BACK UP A NOTCH.
CMC, EMS AND GEFS SIMILARITIES ARE RATHER CONFIDENT THUS FAR, SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE NEAR CLOSER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXISTS NEAR THE
COAST THURSDAY MORNING, SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ON
THURSDAY AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CURRENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT ON THURSDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
STAY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THEN
SHIFTS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 91 72 91 / 10 30 0 20
PENSACOLA 77 89 76 90 / 10 30 0 20
DESTIN 79 88 77 89 / 0 20 20 30
EVERGREEN 72 92 71 92 / 20 20 10 30
WAYNESBORO 73 94 73 95 / 0 20 10 10
CAMDEN 73 90 72 91 / 0 20 10 10
CRESTVIEW 72 92 71 93 / 10 30 0 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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