443
FXUS64 KMOB 070812
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
312 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 312 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP AT AREA BEACHES
ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
STARTING OFF TONIGHT RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT
GOES-16 NIGHT MICROPHYSICS ALONG WITH KMOB TRENDS. SEEING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WARM GULF WATERS FUELED BY COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MARINE INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL STEADILY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE/WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC
ASSISTANCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 1-3KTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
LANDBREEZE LOCALIZED SFC/LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, AMPLE PBL MOISTURE
ALL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAIR-WEATHER WATERSPOUTS,
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL POUR INLAND
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS MID-MORNING, BECOMING MORE NOTICABLY INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FUELED BY AMPLE DAYTIME SFC
HEATING, WITH GREATEST/STRONGEST CONVECTION FOCUSED FROM LOCALIZED
LIFT CAUSED BY SEA/BAYBREEZE INTERACTIONS. FOR THAT REASON, CAN'T
FULLY RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL GIVEN NOTICABLY DRYING IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERE AMPLIFIED BY DOWNWARD FLUX MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN A
WELL-MIXED, DEEP PBL. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO PROPOSED NBM POPS
AS TIMING/COVERAGE APPEARS IN LINE WITH METEOROLOGICAL REASONING
AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT REFS/HRRR TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY, DID TAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
TO ALLOW FOR A MORE REALISTIC AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME, THIS MOSTLY
WAS EMPHASIZED AS PRESCRIBED BURNS CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ROLLING RIGHT ALONG INTO THE WEEKEND, SAME DEAL EACH DAY WITH HOT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. HONESTLY HARD TO FIND MANY DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EACH DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE IMPULSE DRIFTS WEST
OF THE AREA, AND DAILY MAINLY MID/LATE AM TO PM POP-UP
SHOWERS/STORMS, STARTING NEAR THE WATER, THEN MORE INLAND
THROUGHOUT EACH DAY. NO OPPRESSIVE OR EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90'S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70'S
PROVIDING MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 101-107 RANGE.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE WEAK, SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE DRIFTS
INLAND ACROSS SE LA PLACING OUR GENERAL AREA IN RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. STILL SEEING LONG-RANGE HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN A BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN EXPANDING/RETROGRADING
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES, AIDING IN INCREASING
HEAT AND LOWERING POPS SOME. NOT REFLECTING MUCH OF THIS WITHIN
THE FORECAST YET OTHER THAN SOME MID TO BECOMING UPPER 90'S
POSSIBLE IN SW MS COUNTIES, BUT COULD START TO GET CLOSER TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT MID/LATE WEEK. JUST DEPENDS ON IF
WE MIX OUT A BIT MORE WHICH IS A COMMON THEME AS WE WARM UP TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM. KLG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL ALABAMA, SO KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FOR KJKA FROM
07/11Z TO 07/15Z. THIS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INLAND, SO KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FOR KMOB AND KBFM FROM 07/17Z TO
07/21Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING AND PREVAIL GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
/22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE COAST, A DIURNAL CYCLE WILL BRING ONSHORE
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 72 93 73 / 20 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 90 75 92 76 / 30 0 20 10
DESTIN 89 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 20
EVERGREEN 92 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 94 72 95 71 / 10 20 30 10
CAMDEN 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 40 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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