304
FXUS64 KMOB 270531
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- SUMMER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 98-103 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO
AROUND 103-110 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
SOUTHERN BASE NOW REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALONG WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.1" WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GENERALIZED WIDESPREAD LOWER-LEVEL PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
DOMINATE FEATURES AS THE MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO WHERE A
POTENTIAL WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SET UP. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A
SLIGHT LOWERING OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT WE ARE STILL FORECASTING A
DAILY OCCURRING OF MAINLY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POISED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA OR IF RAINFALL
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO, MS TO CRESTVIEW, FL, AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA ZONES ON
FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (AROUND 90 DEGREES) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES INLAND
TO AROUND 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WITH THE LOSS THE DAY'S
HEATING, ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION, AM EXPECTING THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DECREASE, THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO THE CONVECTION TO LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS COMPLEX CAN BRING LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO MID
MVFR LEVELS ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS
COMPLEX HAS A LOW CHANCE OF AFFECTING AREA TAF SITES. THE
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN REDEVELOP INLAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 71 88 71 / 70 50 50 20
PENSACOLA 89 74 87 74 / 70 50 60 40
DESTIN 88 75 86 75 / 50 50 70 30
EVERGREEN 90 70 89 69 / 80 50 60 20
WAYNESBORO 90 71 92 69 / 80 40 40 10
CAMDEN 89 71 89 70 / 60 50 50 10
CRESTVIEW 91 70 88 69 / 70 40 70 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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