252
FXUS64 KMOB 121752
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM DAWN THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 100-106 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE US INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW
LATE SATURDAY. ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SET UP STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS MORNING. PMMS SHOW SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WHICH ARE
NOT WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY, BUT SOME SMALL BULLSEYES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS OVER COASTAL
WATERS HAVE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 2.1-2.3 INCH RANGE. THE LATEST 00Z
SOUNDING TO THE WEST AT LIX SHOWS THE MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED AND A 2.24 INCH PWAT WHICH IS
STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
THESE HIGH PWATS AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL OF 15,000+ FEET WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME OF 2+ INCH PWATS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AREA IN TURN HAS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MORNING OVER MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S INLAND WHERE THE
MOST EFFICIENT MIXING OCCURS WITH MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SO CLOSE,
THIS RESULTS IN LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND THE LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST. THIS ESPECIALLY HAPPENS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHERE WE ARE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT I EXPECT WE
WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH TO STAY BELOW 108+ HEAT INDICES. NORMAL PWATS
ARE IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. PWATS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
1.4-1.6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AREA,
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF TO END THE WEEK. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WE SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS NOW LOW TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK FOR ALL AREA BEACHES IN FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. WE ARE SEEING AN
UPTREND IN WINDS, SO AN INCREASE TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY
BE NECESSARY BEGINNING NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
MAY SET UP. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SURF HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY
1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. MVFR CEILINGS, BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES, AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS FOR
ALL TAF SITES WILL START OFF SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY MID WEEK. 1 FOOT SEAS PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY TO 3 TO 6
FEET. WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 73 92 74 / 50 0 30 10
PENSACOLA 88 77 91 77 / 80 10 30 10
DESTIN 88 77 89 77 / 90 20 20 10
EVERGREEN 90 70 94 71 / 40 10 20 0
WAYNESBORO 91 72 95 72 / 20 20 30 0
CAMDEN 89 72 93 72 / 40 20 10 0
CRESTVIEW 90 72 92 72 / 70 10 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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