737
FXUS64 KMOB 130506
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-107
DEGREES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A WEAKENING UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EJECTS OFF TO
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES MEANWHILE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE SETS UP AN EASTERLY FLOW AND USHERS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AND BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN INTERESTING PATTERN SETS UP LATER IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LOW/TROF OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
INVERTED SURFACE TROF, IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TO OVER OR NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. AM ANTICIPATING DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY, THEN HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THEN
TREND TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 100-106 WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 107. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
90-95. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-103 ON WEDNESDAY TREND TO THE MID
90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN INCREASES TO A HIGH
RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON (20-30%
COVERAGE). ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY,
AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS, MAINLY
INLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
IN THE MORNING, TURNING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AN UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST, WITH SHIFT A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF,
BRINGING A MORE VARIABLE FLOW TO AREA WATERS EARLY IN THE COMING
WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BRINGING A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TO AREA
WATERS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW OVER OPEN GULF WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED MID WEEK ON.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 92 73 94 / 0 40 0 0
PENSACOLA 77 91 77 93 / 10 30 0 0
DESTIN 77 89 77 92 / 10 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 70 94 71 97 / 0 30 0 0
WAYNESBORO 72 96 72 98 / 0 40 10 0
CAMDEN 72 94 72 96 / 10 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 72 93 72 94 / 0 30 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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