599
FXUS64 KMOB 160535
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY AS
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
- MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DIMINISH IN SIZE
AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY, AND THEN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO
A CRAWL SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE AT THIS TIME WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLING OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
BARELY GET OUT OF THE STARTING BLOCKS AND HAVE IT STALLING NEAR
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY INTACT, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT AN EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE
DRIER AIR FLOWING INTO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING LOW.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A DAILY OCCURRENCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY REACH INLAND ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PREDAWN TO
SUNRISE HOURS. THE CURRENT GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST BY AROUND DAWN TO 10-15 KNOTS AND PREVAIL
EASTERLY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER MARINE AREAS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONG
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS RELAX TO LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EASTERLIES TO END THE WEEK. SEAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARINE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 71 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 91 74 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 92 74 90 74 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 93 67 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 95 69 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 93 68 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 91 69 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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