133
FXUS64 KMOB 011136
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS IS RIGHT ON TRACK AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING INLAND LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPCOMING WET
PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ANALYZING THE LATEST DATA THIS
MORNING WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NECESSARY AT THIS
POINT. 07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INLAND. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH, WHILE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP DEEPEN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, BEGINNING OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND BY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
TODAY LOOKS GENERALLY SCATTERED (40-50% POPS) WITH LOWER COVERAGE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A BROAD INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAYS FOR OUR AREA. FRIDAY'S
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY A BIT MORE BRIEF, BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS SURGE TO
AROUND 2.3 INCHES BY AFTERNOON.
PWAT VALUES THEN APPROACH 2.4-2.5 INCHES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
PLACING THEM ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN
PROCESSES AND LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION THAT
COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. WHILE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN, CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA, WITH A GENERAL 2-3 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR. LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST IF TRAINING
CONVECTION SETS UP. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
FOR URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING HOW FAST THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS, PERSISTENT CLOUDS, RAIN, AND THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S, THROUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 70S.
AT THE BEACHES, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, DECREASING TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROB30 GROUPS CONTINUE FOR
THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS RELAX ON SUNDAY AND TURN
NORTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BUMP TO 4-7 FEET
POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 73 86 72 / 40 30 80 50
PENSACOLA 87 76 85 75 / 50 50 70 70
DESTIN 87 75 84 75 / 50 40 70 70
EVERGREEN 91 67 88 68 / 40 10 70 50
WAYNESBORO 91 69 89 69 / 40 10 60 30
CAMDEN 91 68 90 69 / 20 10 60 40
CRESTVIEW 90 69 86 69 / 50 10 80 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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