091
FXUS64 KMOB 020548
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND DURING LATE NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A RATHER WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH EXTENDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CAUSES A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TO
MOSTLY SHEAR OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A MODEST UPPER LOW
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF EXTENDING
TO NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ABSORBS THE
REMNANT WEAK UPPER TROF, LEADING TO THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
AND RETREATING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE PLAINS/INTERIOR EASTERN STATES
TO EXTEND FROM COASTAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY, A SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
MEANWHILE BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DEVELOPS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST,
INTERSECTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED SURFACE
TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2.5 INCHES WHICH PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. AS NOTED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT, THESE VALUES ARE WAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PATTERN INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS VERY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
FLOODING FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY, THEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF FLOODING IS IN PLACE FOR ESSENTIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT RISK OF
FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2-3 INCHES INLAND TO 4-5
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SEE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE COMING
FORECAST UPDATES, AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6-9 INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION SETS UP.
FOR MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF MOVES OFF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY, AND SLOWLY CONTINUES
FURTHER INTO THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR MONDAY, HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-65 WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE, THEN
RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY TO CHANCE POPS EAST
OF I-65 WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MOBILE BAY DURING HIGH
TIDE LATE TONIGHT AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN TIDAL HEIGHTS OF
1.5-1.6 FEET ARE INDICATED, JUST SHY OF 1.7 FEET WHEN COASTAL
FLOODING BEGINS. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
CURRENTLY THERE IS A LULL IN CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
THEN INCREASE ALONG THE COAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE FIRST PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES
TO LATER TIME FROM 02/13Z UNTIL 02/17Z FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND
ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES FROM 02/17Z UNTIL 02/23Z
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS STABILITY DECREASES. DROPS OF
CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS RELAX BY MONDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE GET STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER BUMP TO 4-7 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 85 72 83 / 40 90 80 90
PENSACOLA 75 84 75 84 / 60 90 90 90
DESTIN 75 84 75 84 / 60 90 80 90
EVERGREEN 69 87 69 82 / 40 90 60 90
WAYNESBORO 70 85 70 80 / 40 80 60 90
CAMDEN 70 87 70 80 / 40 70 60 90
CRESTVIEW 70 85 70 82 / 40 90 70 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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