620
FXUS64 KMOB 021726
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A WAVE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA TODAY VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PWATS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO AROUND
2.3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OFFSHORE AND OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING, EXPANDING INLAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 60-80% SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS BEEN OUTLINED BY THE
WPC.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. AS THE WAVE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CONVERGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
SURGE TO AROUND 2.4-2.5 INCHES, PLACING THEM ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TRAINING CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE DEEPLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND
LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST, THROUGH THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS FOR GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION OCCURS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. SINCE OUR SOIL CAN GENERALLY TAKE
A LOT OF RAIN BEFORE FLOODING BEGINS GIVEN LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE WPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA AND
PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY FILTERING IN DRIER AIR AND
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS
SUBSTANTIALLY GOING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
ALONG THE COAST, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING
KING TIDE CYCLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDES, WITH WATER
LEVELS REACHING UP TO AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND. THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALONG NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATE RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. JGC/98
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MAIN IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PERIODS/SQUALLS OF SHRA/TSRA INTRODUCING PERIODIC LOWER VIS/CIGS
REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TIMED BEST APPROXIMATED WINDOWS
FOR AREA TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ALREADY CONTINUING TO
IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO BREEZY MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS A TIMES, HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET. WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO 5-7 FEET. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 82 71 82 / 60 90 80 90
PENSACOLA 75 83 74 82 / 60 90 80 100
DESTIN 75 84 74 83 / 50 90 80 100
EVERGREEN 68 85 68 80 / 20 70 80 90
WAYNESBORO 69 84 69 79 / 20 70 80 90
CAMDEN 69 87 69 78 / 20 50 80 90
CRESTVIEW 69 84 70 80 / 20 90 80 100
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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