510
FXUS64 KMOB 060457
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF HAS A HIGH (80
PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
MIDWEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK,
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY
AS SURF HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
AFTER A MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
OUR FOCUS TURNS TO ANOTHER MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT LATE THIS WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY FORMS OVER THE
GULF. NOT EXACTLY THE OCTOBERS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO. IN ADDITION,
WE ARE ALSO FOCUSED ON IMPACTFUL BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST OFF THE COAST, WITH A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA A CHANCE
TO DRY OUT PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL
THE DRIER AIR PUSHES OFFSHORE. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREA COURTESY OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
THERE WILL BE BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS TO CONTEND WITH. A COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
RETURNING TUESDAY THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY AS SURF HEIGHTS
NEAR 5 FEET. IN ADDITION, HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF HAS A HIGH (80
PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
MIDWEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, THERE
IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WEST OF
I-65 AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S TONIGHT, COOLING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
BEACH FORECAST: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS BECOME PREDOMINANT THIS EVENING MOSTLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65, WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WEST OF I-65 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF
I-65. PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ON
TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OUT IN THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THESE WINDS AND INCREASE TO 4 TO 7
FEET CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING 6AM TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 68 82 67 / 50 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 80 69 79 69 / 80 30 30 10
DESTIN 81 70 80 69 / 90 40 50 10
EVERGREEN 81 64 83 62 / 50 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 82 65 85 63 / 20 10 0 0
CAMDEN 82 64 85 61 / 20 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 65 78 64 / 80 20 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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