637
WTUS84 KMOB 090931
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091745-
HURRICANE ISAIAS LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL AL092026
431 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THIS PRODUCT COVERS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
**ISAIAS STRENGTHENING**
**PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS THE WEATHER WILL
GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY TODAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BALDWIN CENTRAL, BALDWIN COASTAL, ESCAMBIA COASTAL, MOBILE
CENTRAL, MOBILE COASTAL, OKALOOSA COASTAL, AND SANTA ROSA
COASTAL
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BALDWIN INLAND, CONECUH,
COVINGTON, ESCAMBIA, ESCAMBIA INLAND, MOBILE INLAND, OKALOOSA
INLAND, AND SANTA ROSA INLAND
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BUTLER, CLARKE,
CRENSHAW, GEORGE, GREENE, MONROE, WASHINGTON, AND WILCOX
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW, PERRY, STONE,
AND WAYNE
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AL OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA FL
- 26.4N 88.0W
- STORM INTENSITY 110 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING
AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. SOME WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. HOWEVER, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL THIS EVENING ACROSS EITHER COASTAL ALABAMA OR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS JUST ON
THE CENTER AS THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND BY LANDFALL, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS AND A LIFE THREATENING STORM
SURGE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL.
PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND
IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY SOME COASTAL COUNTIES AND YOU
SHOULD CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.
THOSE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING NEED TO PREPARE FOR DAMAGING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 74 TO 110 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THESE WINDS
INCLUDE NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES, SIGNIFICANT POWER
OUTAGES, AND SOME ROOF DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD
WELL INLAND WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AS THE CENTER OF ISAIAS QUICKLY MOVES NORTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA, SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BANDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE CENTER TRACK OF THE STORM. AREAS OF
FLOODING ARE LIKELY IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED, WITH
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RIVERS REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. IN ADDITION, A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK AS IT MOVES
INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL
ALABAMA AND COASTS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LARGE AREAS OF DEEP INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING
ACCENTUATED BY BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS,
WITH SEVERAL WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE COMPOUNDED BY FLOATING
DEBRIS. LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
- LARGE SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS
WASHED OUT OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND
BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- SEVERE BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS.
- MAJOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. MANY
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WITH SOME LIFTED ONSHORE AND STRANDED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.,
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, WITH SOME HAVING
WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES LEADING TO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED, WITH SOME DESTROYED.
DAMAGE ACCENTUATED BY AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS MAY BE
UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS.
- MANY LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES.
- LARGE AREAS WITH POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED TO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY
BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY
BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS.
MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS SOME COASTAL COUNTIES.
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND CHECK WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE RELOCATING TO SAFE SHELTER, LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. MANY ROADS AND BRIDGES
WILL BE CLOSED ONCE STRONG WINDS ARRIVE. CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST BEFORE DEPARTING AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.
STORM SURGE IS THE LEADING KILLER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES! MAKE SURE YOU ARE IN A SAFE AREA AWAY FROM THE SURGE
ZONE. EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SURGE-PRONE AREA, YOU COULD FIND
YOURSELF CUTOFF BY FLOOD WATERS DURING AND AFTER THE STORM. HEED
EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER
WARNINGS.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR THE LATEST DETAILED EVACUATION AND SHELTER INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AT THE PHONE NUMBER
OR WEBSITE LISTED BELOW.
- COASTAL ALABAMA:
- BALDWIN COUNTY: 251-972-6807 OR
WWW.BALDWINCOUNTYAL.GOV/DEPARTMENTS/EMA
- MOBILE COUNTY: 251-460-8000 OR MOBILECOUNTYEMA.GOV
- NORTHWEST FLORIDA:
- ESCAMBIA COUNTY: 850-471-6400 OR MYESCAMBIA.COM/BEREADY
- SANTA ROSA COUNTY: 850-983-5360 WWW.SANTAROSA.FL.GOV/EMERGENCY
- OKALOOSA COUNTY: 850-651-7150 OR MYOKALOOSA.COM/EMERGENCY-MANAGEMENT
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AL AROUND 10 AM CDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page