489
AXNT20 KNHC 072103 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
CORRECTED SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RAFAEL:
HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500 UTC, OR
185 NM WEST OF KEY WEST, FLORIDA MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
HAS DIMINISHED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING
AROUND 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN EYE
FEATURE IS FAINTLY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN
THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER, EXCEPT 60 NM IN THE E AND W
QUADRANTS. CIRRUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED MOSTLY IN THE W
SEMICIRCLE OF RAFAEL. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR THE LATEST
RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 59W SOUTH OF 15N.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS DETECTED A SUBTLE NE TO
SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EAST OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N58W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH BRIEFLY ENTERS THE ATLANTIC REACHING FROM 11N14W
TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N16W TO 05N20W TO 06N27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE
ITCZ. OTHERWISE, NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
RAFAEL.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N, WHILE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE E WINDS ARE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RAFAEL
CROSSING 26N AND EXTENDING TO 27N. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 10-
17 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RAFAEL IS NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 10 AM
EST, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 971 MB. RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 24.6N 86.7W THIS EVENING, 24.6N
88.4W FRI MORNING, 24.6N 89.8W FRI EVENING, 24.7N 91.0W SAT
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 24.7N 91.9W SAT EVENING,
AND 24.5N 92.6W SUN MORNING. RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR
24.0N 93.2W EARLY MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF RAFAEL ARE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-84W ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
W OF 84W WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS AT FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS, NE IN DIRECTION, THAT ARE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 16N AS WELL AS IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6-8 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD NE
SWELL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT,
PREVAIL.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N67W, MOVING
WESTWARD. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION, WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW IN ITS EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. FLOODING MAY RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TO THE E OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW, A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 63W N OF 14N. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS HIGHLIGHTED A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT OF LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS
ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RAFAEL IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24.5N
85.2W AT 10 AM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THIS EVENING AS RAFAEL MOVES FURTHER
FROM THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE, LARGE NE TO E
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN INTO FRI MORNING AND SUBSIDE AFTERWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND HURRICANE RAFAEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS E OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE SEAS ARE
6-8 FT IN E SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 63W AND THAT EXTENDS S OF 25N INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE NE TO E TO
SE WINDS AS SEEN IN THE LATEST ASCAT PASS OVER THAT PART OF THE
OCEAN. THESE WINDS ALSO COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ROUGHLY
FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE
8-12 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS UNDER UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS SEEN
FROM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 22N AND BETWEEN 64W-69W.
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N21W TO
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB NEAR 26.5N27W. IT CONTINUES TO
22N38W, WHERE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN TO 22N50W. A FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT WESTWARD TO NEAR 21N60W. AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS
QUICKLY LIFTING NNE OVER THE NE WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 29W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG, AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 52W-56W. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SOON TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE.
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD N SWELL ARE N OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE TO THE SE OF
THE FRONT E OF 45W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5-7 FT CONTINUE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF PUERTO RICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS E
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 55W THROUGH FRI EVENING.
THE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT.
AGUIRRE
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