759
AXNT20 KNHC 072106
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC FRI NOV 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1950 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100 UTC OR
230 NM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA, MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 33 FT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240
NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF RAFAEL.
SOME SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA: A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INDUCED BY HURRICANE RAFAEL THAT IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH NE NICARAGUA THIS EVENING. AS IT
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION, CYCLONIC ROTATION WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE WEST COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STALLED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION WILL FAVOR THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WILL ENHANCE EXTREME PRECIPITATION
OVER COSTA RICA. ACCUMULATIONS OVER CENTRAL COSTA RICA WILL
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 20 INCHES (500 MM) BY TUE. IN ADDITION, A
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON FRI
AFTERNOON. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH ACCUMULATIONS TO
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PANAMA WHERE IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES
(250 MM) ARE EXPECTED BY TUE. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 61W, FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
NEAR THE BORDER OF VENEZUELA AND GUYANA, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20
KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST
OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 44W AND 59W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH BRIEFLY ENTERS THE ATLANTIC REACHING FROM 10N14W
TO 09N15W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N15W TO 05N27W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
RAFAEL.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE NE GULF NORTH OF 28N,
WHILE STRONG TO NEAR GALE E WINDS ARE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
RAFAEL CROSSING 26N AND EXTENDING TO 27N. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE 10 TO 17 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE
ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 24.7N 87.5W FRI MORNING,
24.7N 89.2W FRI AFTERNOON, 24.8N 90.5W SAT MORNING, 25.0N 91.5W
SAT AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.2N 92.2W SUN
MORNING, AND 25.1N 92.6W SUN AFTERNOON. RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF WEST-CENTRAL OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 23.7N 93.3W MON AFTERNOON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF RAFAEL ARE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 84W WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS, NE IN DIRECTION, THAT ARE SOUTH
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 15.5N, AS WELL AS IN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5 TO 8
FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN THE MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD NE SWELL. SIMILAR SEAS ARE IN AND
NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N67W,
MOVING WESTWARD. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION,
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW IN ITS EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
MONA PASSAGE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FLOODING MAY RESULT FROM
THIS ACTIVITY AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 64W TO THE NORTH OF 13N. AN EARLIER ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS HIGHLIGHTED A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT OF LIGHT TO
GENTLE SPEEDS ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SE WINDS SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE, LARGE NE TO E
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN INTO FRI MORNING AND SUBSIDE AFTERWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND HURRICANE RAFAEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS EAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE SEAS ARE
6 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 64W AND THAT EXTENDS SOUTH OF 24N
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE NE TO
E TO SE WINDS AS SEEN IN AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER
THAT PART OF THE OCEAN. THESE WINDS ALSO COVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 15N TO 24N
BETWEEN 51W AND 68W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN IT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION.
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM SW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS THROUGH 31N19W TO TO WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
27N27W TO ANOTHER 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 24.5N31W WHERE IT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TO 22N37W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT
WESTWARD TO NEAR 21N60W. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS QUICKLY LIFTING NNE OVER THE NE
WATERS NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 29W. ASIDE FROM THE AREAS
DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT
IN LONG-PERIOD N SWELL ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE TO
AROUND 28N/29N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
ARE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE TO ABOUT 19N TO
THE EAST OF 55W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 55W THROUGH
FRI EVENING. THE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LEWITSKY
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