741
AXNT20 KNHC 080616
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC FRI NOV 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600
UTC OR 240 NM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO, AND MOVING W AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PEAK SEAS RANGE FROM 30 TO
33 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE
OF RAFAEL. A GENERAL W TO WNW MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR RAFAEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING RAFAEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND. SOME MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS ON INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY
RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF HURRICANE RAFAEL IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD TOWARD NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN IN ITS
VICINITY. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, IT WILL INTRODUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF NICARAGUA ON FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
TO ENHANCE EXTREME RAINFALL OVER COSTA RICA. IN ADDITION, A
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) IS FORECAST TO START DEVELOPING
FARTHER SOUTH ON FRI AFTERNOON. ABUNDANCE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
MOIST FLOW ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 61W FROM THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WEST
AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE NORTHWEST GUINEA
COAST, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N17W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 02N TO 07N
BETWEEN THE SIERRA LEONE-LIBERIA COAST AND 16W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 06N17W TO 03N36W, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 150 NM NORTH AND
100 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 46W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AT THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON HURRICANE RAFAEL.
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FEEDING INTO HURRICANE RAFAEL ARE
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR KEY
WEST, FLORIDA. FARTHER WEST, SURFACE RIDGING INDUCED BY SUBSIDENCE
OF RAFAEL DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF. OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT
OF RAFAEL, FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE WINDS AND 6 TO 10 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS
AND SEAS AT 10 TO 18 FT EXIST AT THE CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NNE TO E WINDS WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 24.7N 88.4W FRI MORNING,
24.8N 89.9W FRI EVENING AND 25.1N 91.1W SAT MORNING, BEFORE
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.2N 91.9W SAT EVENING.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL REACH 25.3N 92.4W SUN MORNING, AND 24.9N 92.7W
SUN EVENING. RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
TO 23.7N 93.1W LATE MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWARD FROM A PRONOUNCED UPPER
LOW JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THESE
FEATURES ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE
EVIDENT SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA BEFORE DIMINISHING FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARL NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR MADEIRA ACROSS
31N16W AND A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N26W TO 24N29W. A SHEAR LINE
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 24N29W TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 21N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 90 NM NORTH
OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT UP TO 70 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
SHEAR LINE BETWEEN 39W AND 60W. AIDED BY DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING UP TO 90 NM NORTH AND 50 NM SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE WEST
OF 60W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS WITH 8 TO 10
FT SEAS ARE SEEN FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND THE BAHAMAS.
FOR NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS EXIST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND A TROUGH LOCATED NEAR AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS NORTH
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH FRI MORNING. ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BY FRI NIGHT. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE SHEAR LINE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF 31N ON SAT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N
SWELL NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE N
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page