701
AXNT20 KNHC 081049
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC FRI NOV 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900 UTC OR
210 NM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 31 FT. STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BY TONIGHT, A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 24.6N 89.3W
THIS AFTERNOON, 24.8N 90.6W SAT MORNING, 25.2N 91.6W SAT
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.5N 92.1W SUN
MORNING, 26.0N 92.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 26.3N 91.4W MON MORNING.
RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 24.5N
91.5W EARLY TUE. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF HURRICANE RAFAEL IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD TOWARD NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN ITS
VICINITY. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, IT WILL INTRODUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF NICARAGUA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO ENHANCE
EXTREME RAINFALL OVER COSTA RICA. IN ADDITION, A CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE (CAG) IS FORECAST TO START DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANCE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW ALONG WITH
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PANAMA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER AGENCY FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 63W, FROM 03N TO 15N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 07N16W. THE
ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 07N16W TO 03N35W TO 13N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 46W AND 58W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON HURRICANE RAFAEL.
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FEEDING INTO HURRICANE RAFAEL ARE
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR KEY
WEST, FLORIDA. FARTHER WEST, SURFACE RIDGING INDUCED BY SUBSIDENCE
OF RAFAEL DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF. OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT
OF RAFAEL, FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE WINDS AND 6 TO 10 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW
WINDS AND SEAS AT 10 TO 18 FT EXIST IN THE CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NNE TO E WINDS WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY TODAY. BY TONIGHT, A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL
WILL MOVE TO 24.6N 89.3W THIS AFTERNOON, 24.8N 90.6W SAT MORNING,
25.2N 91.6W SAT AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.5N
92.1W SUN MORNING, 26.0N 92.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 26.3N 91.4W MON
MORNING. RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
24.5N 91.5W EARLY TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWARD FROM A PRONOUNCED UPPER
LOW JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THESE
FEATURES ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE
EVIDENT SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
RAFAEL MOVES TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR MADEIRA ACROSS
31N18W AND A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N25W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TOWARD 20N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT UP
TO 70 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.
AIDED BY DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UP TO 90 NM NORTH AND 50
NM SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE WEST OF 60W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS WITH 8 TO 10
FT SEAS ARE SEEN FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND THE BAHAMAS.
FOR NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST, MODERATE ENE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS EXIST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF A SHEAR LINE, LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST WATERS ON SAT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N
SWELL NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE N
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
ADAMS
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