371
AXNT20 KNHC 091058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC SAT NOV 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 90.8W AT 09/0900 UTC
OR 230 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY. AFTER
THAT, RAFAEL IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAFAEL
WILL MOVE TO 25.1N 91.5W THIS AFTERNOON, 25.4N 92.1W SUN MORNING,
25.3N 92.3W SUN AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
24.7N 92.3W MON MORNING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 23.9N
92.5W MON AFTERNOON, AND 23.1N 92.6W TUE MORNING. RAFAEL WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 21.0N 93.7W EARLY WED.
SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO A MONSOON TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, SPORADIC CONVECTION IS FLARING UP
IN BOTH PLACES. A BOARD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH TODAY, WHICH MIGHT STRENGTHEN INTO A CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENHANCE WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 (150 TO 305 MM) INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT BOTH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PANAMA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHWESTERN PANAMA. FOR COSTA RICA, 6 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH POSSIBLE 12 TO
20 INCHES (305 TO 510 MM) AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCY
FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 65W FROM SOUTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WEST
AROUND 5 KT. ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. AN
ITCZ ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 07N12W TO 07N47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 08N BETWEEN
25W AND 48W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
NEAR PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT OF RAFAEL, FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY
NEAR-GALE ENE TO ESE WINDS WITH 10 TO 14 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG SE TO WSW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE NOTED IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 8 FT
SEAS EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 10 FT IN LARGE
EASTERLY SWELL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL SEE STEADY WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY. AFTER THAT, RAFAEL IS LIKELY TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 25.1N 91.5W
THIS AFTERNOON, 25.4N 92.1W SUN MORNING, 25.3N 92.3W SUN
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 24.7N 92.3W MON
MORNING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 23.9N 92.5W MON
AFTERNOON, AND 23.1N 92.6W TUE MORNING. RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 21.0N 93.7W EARLY WED. LOOKING AHEAD,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN
WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND RELATED TROUGH CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING SIMILAR CONVECTION NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO
6 FT ARE PRESENT NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES, IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT
SEAS ARE SEEN AT THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. MAINLY GENTLE EASTERLY
WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS OCCURRING
THROUGH THE PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE BASIN. FRESH NE WINDS
OCCURRING ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD,
MODERATE TO LARGE N SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
MON THROUGH WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALSO NOTED IN THIS AREA. A 1016 MB LOW WEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N23W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A 1022 MB HIGH SOUTH OF
THE AZORES NEAR 31N33W TO THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
MODERATE N SWELL NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MODERATE E SWELL EXIST NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 65W AND THE GEORGIA-NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST. TO THE SOUTH,
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT
FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT
IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 30W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH NORTH
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROUGH, IF ANY, SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
THE GREATER ANTILLES, TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS, AND EASTERN CUBA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND NEXT 7 DAYS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TODAY,
REACHING 23N SUN MORNING, THEN WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ALONG 20N MON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. N SWELL
WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ADAMS
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