097
AXNT20 KNHC 100614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300 UTC
OR 285 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, AND DRIFTING NW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER
RANGE FROM 14 TO 16 FT WHILE SEAS FARTHER AWAY ARE FROM 10 TO 13
FT. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN UP
TO 100 NM IN A E SEMI CIRCLE FROM THE CENTER. RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN TURNS
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AND RAFAEL SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.
DESPITE BEING FAR AWAY FROM LAND, RAFAEL HAS ADVECTED TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INTERACTION WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY CAN CAUSE DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, RESIDUAL SWELL PRODUCED BY
RAFAEL WILL SUSTAIN LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH- CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK
TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 66W FROM NEAR PUERTO
RICO SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 5 KT. BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT, NUMEROUS
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, AND NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN
FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA-BISSAU
AND GUINEA, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N19W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 09N19W ACROSS 06N35W TO 07N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BUT NEAR THE ITCZ
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA COAST AND 40W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 120
NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 40W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA
RICA, PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL STORM
RAFAEL.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT OF RAFAEL, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW TO NNW
WINDS WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 26.0N 91.8W SUN MORNING,
26.0N 91.5W SUN EVENING, THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.3N
91.4W MON MORNING. AFTERWARD IT WILL REACH 24.0N 91.8W MON
EVENING, 22.8N 92.6W TUE MORNING, AND 22.2N 93.7W TUE EVENING.
RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 21.4N 95.2W
LATE WED. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON WED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF LATE NEXT WEEK,
REINFORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA
TROUGH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMAICA TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE
PRESENT AT THE LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS OCCURRING
THROUGH THE PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL TURN EASTERLY ON
SUN AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN BASIN MOVES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE
LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND MONA PASSAGE ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LARGE N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA ON WED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU, LEADING
TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES WESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N56W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA, THEN CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 40 NM SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM 22N61W TO 31N52W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO
200 NM EAST OF THIS FEATURE. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG NW TO NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 8 TO 12 FT IN LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA COAST. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF
24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. TO THE EAST FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
EXIST. TO THE SOUTH FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND THE
BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 5 TO 6 FT IS FOUND. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS, MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED 1011 MB LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, REACHING 23N BY SUN
MORNING AND 19N BY MON BEFORE STALLING THROUGH TUE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN N SWELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGH TUE. N SWELL WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WEST OF 55W BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHAN
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