001
AXNT20 KNHC 101059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900 UTC
OR 310 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING NNW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 12 TO 14 FT.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER,
AND IS NOTED FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 26.4N 91.7W THIS AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 26.2N 90.9W MON MORNING, 25.4N 90.7W
MON AFTERNOON, 24.3N 91.3W TUE MORNING, 23.5N 92.5W TUE AFTERNOON,
AND DISSIPATE WED MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. INDIRECT RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE FROM RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO
15 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN COULD LEAD TO OR CONTINUE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK
TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 67W FROM NEAR PUERTO
RICO SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 KT. BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT, NUMEROUS
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, AND NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN
FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO
09N18W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 09N18W TO 08N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA
RICA, PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL STORM
RAFAEL.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT OF RAFAEL, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW TO NNW
WINDS WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEAKENING THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 26.4N 91.7W THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 26.2N 90.9W MON MORNING, 25.4N 90.7W MON
AFTERNOON, 24.3N 91.3W TUE MORNING, 23.5N 92.5W TUE AFTERNOON, AND
DISSIPATE WED MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON WED AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SECOND COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK,
REINFORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA FROM A
1010 MB LOW CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS OCCURRING
THROUGH THE PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL TURN EASTERLY
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE
LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND MONA PASSAGE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LARGE N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA ON WED AND ACROSS THE NW
BASIN AND HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU, LEADING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 27N66W TO 28N77W, AND A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N77W THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA.
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 40 NM SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM
21N61W TO 29N52W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 200
NM EAST OF THIS FEATURE. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG NW TO NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 8 TO 12 FT IN LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 50W AND THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA COAST. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF
24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. TO THE EAST FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
EXIST. TO THE SOUTH FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND THE
BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT ARE FOUND. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS, MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A 1011 MB LOW,
CENTERED NEAR 24.5N71W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, REACHING 23N THIS MORNING AND
19N BY MON BEFORE STALLING THROUGH TUE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE. N
SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND WEST OF 55W BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
ADAMS
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