198
AXNT20 KNHC 102314
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT
10/2100 UTC OR 300 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING E AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
PRESENCE OF A CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWESTERN PANAMA. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 67W EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE WAVE, COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT, IS
HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS, AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 66W
AND 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN
OVER MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ ENTERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO 03N30W TO 05N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 25W AND
51W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
RAFAEL IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT DOES NOT POSSESS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOW THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND
VERY ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. WINDS ARE 25 TO 30
KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF RAFAEL. THE LAST
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM AT 10/2100 UTC. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANT LOW OF RAFAEL COVERS
ROUGHLY THE WATERS N OF 23N AND W OF 90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO
N WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW GULF WHILE WINDS ARE ON INCREASE
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WHERE SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. OUTSIDE
RAFAEL, SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF WEST FLORIDA, AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING NEAR 25.8N 90.9W AROUND MIDNIGHT,
THEN TURN SOUTH AND REACH NEAR 25.1N 90.7W MIDDAY MON, REACH NEAR
23.2N 92W MIDDAY TUE, THEN DRIFT SW AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF ON WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NW
GULF ON THU AND REACH THE SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AND 3 TO 4
FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA. ELSEWHERE,
SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15N TO HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE, WITH AND
BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY WILL
STALL NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ALONG ABOUT 19N-20N ON MON.
LARGE N SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE NE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MON AFTERNOON AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
MON EVENING AND NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA ON WED, AND ACROSS THE NW
BASIN AND STALLING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS (INVEST AREA AL98). AT 1800 UTC, A WEAK
1014 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 24N75W. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REACH SE FLORIDA TONIGHT, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
MON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO 22N55W TO 25N73W, THEN
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO. A BAND OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, IS RELATED TO THE FRONT E OF 60W. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MAINLY N OF 25N TO ABOUT 40W. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
AN AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA
TO ABOUT 21N. E OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB LOCATED
WELL NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST WATERS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 57W LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND LOWER PRESSURES
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 60W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,
REACHING ALONG 22N THIS EVENING, AND ALONG 19N-20N BY MON BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING THROUGH TUE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL TO
FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TUE. N
SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUE WILL REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT, AND FROM 28N55W TO
THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
GR
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