654
AXNT20 KNHC 111045
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC MON NOV 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
UPDATED TO ADD SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL PRODUCED BY STRONG TO GALE-FORCE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD ACROSS 31N INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SWELL IS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 12
TO 18 FT FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. THIS SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING 20N AND 36W BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING THIS EVENING, THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DECAY WHILE RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A
CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 69W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC, MONA PASSAGE, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH IS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE
THROUGH 04N35W TO 10N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 57W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RAFAEL LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF AND N
TO NW WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
WHERE ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALSO ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF RAFAEL CENTERED NEAR 26N90W
IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 25.1N 90.7W MIDDAY TODAY, REACH NEAR
23.2N 92W MIDDAY TUE, THEN DRIFT SW AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF EARLY ON WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL
REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS LATE ON WED AND PREVAIL THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NE GULF ON THU AND
REACH THE SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE OVER THESE REGIONS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE E
EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON AND OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH JUST S OF W CUBA. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING HISPANIOLA, AS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER BETWEEN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S JAMAICA ADJACENT WATERS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH SW WINDS OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH TAIL N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 22N67W WILL STALL NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES ALONG ABOUT 19N-20N BY THIS EVENING. LARGE N
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TODAY AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW BASIN TUE AND WED, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA TUE NIGHT, REACHING FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N39W TO 20N59W ACROSS
22N67W, THEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A
1013 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 15 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 28N AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING N OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND
50W. OTHERWISE, A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THIS
FRONT WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 28N AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY TUE EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS TUE EVENING, AND FROM 31N55W TO
NE PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS WED EVENING AND MOVE E OF THE AREA
BY THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A THIRD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAMOS/CHAN
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