635
AXNT20 KNHC 112314
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC MON NOV 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 12 TO 19 FT FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 37W AND
66W. STARTING TONIGHT, THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY
WHILE RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF
A CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 71W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 11N TO 19N
BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA AND
THE MONA PASSAGE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 09N14W TO 03N39W TO 08N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RAFAEL IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS, WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRES WILL MEANDER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF INTO TUE, BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING FRESH WINDS TO THE EASTERN BASIN, WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE GULF THU AND REACH THE SE
GULF BY FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE
SLIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE OF PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING HISPANIOLA, AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS BY WED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCTIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW LATE THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG TO AROUND 20N TONIGHT, THEN STALL TUE AND DISSIPATE BY
TUE NIGHT. LARGE N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT
NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, ANALYZED AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 31N35W TO 20N48W, THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N78W. REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE SWELL EVENT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE
FRONTS. ELSEWHERE, A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THIS
FRONT WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 27N
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY TUE EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS TUE EVENING, AND FROM
31N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WED EVENING, THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA
BY THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A
THIRD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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