715
AXNT20 KNHC 120612
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC TUE NOV 12 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
RESIDUAL LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SUSTAINING HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 36W
AND 52W. AS THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY WHILE RETREATING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FURTHER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY DROP BELOW 12 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG)
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT WESTERN COSTA
RICA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK
TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 72W FROM SOUTHERN HAITI
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 KT. ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WHEN THIS WAVE ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AFTER MIDWEEK.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA COAST NEAR
CONAKRY, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N17W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 09N17W TO 04N40W, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH OF BARBADOS AT 11N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN THE SIERRA
LEONE/LIBERIA COAST AND 16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN UP TO
150 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 27W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 100 NM
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 27W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS A 1007 LOW, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL AT THE CENTRAL
GULF TO JUST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 80
NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND LOW, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. FRESH
WITH LOCALLY STRONG N TO NNE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED
AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 2
TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL WILL MEANDER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AND DISSIPATING WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU, PEAKING AT
STRONG IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED
AND WED NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THU AND EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THU NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AMERICA.
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AT THE EASTERN BASIN. A SMALL 1008 MB LOW AT THE MIDDLE
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN IS CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE TO SW WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE
AT THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS WED NIGHT INTO THU, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE NE
WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA TO BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG. MODERATE TO
FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER NORTHWESTERN
BASIN BY LATE THU WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY FRI
EVENING, RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN THROUGH EARLY MON. IN ADDITION, LARGE N
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF THE AZORES ACROSS
31N33W TO 19N49W, THEN CONTINUES NORTHWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 27N72W, WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ATTACHING TO A 1011 MB
LOW NORTH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 30N75W. PATCHY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE
OF THIS BOUNDARY. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE
EVIDENT EAST OF THE 1011 MB LOW, NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH NNE TO SE TO S WINDS ARE PRESENT
NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W/CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OUTSIDE THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
SEAS RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT IN THE SAME AREA. FARTHER WEST, GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE TO SE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA COAST. TO THE
EAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED MODERATE SWELLS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN
COAST AND 40W, INCLUDING THE CANARY AND CABO VERDE ISLANDS. FOR
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N/19N BETWEEN 40W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY TUE EVENING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE EVENING, AND FROM 31N55W
TO THE MONA PASSAGE WED EVENING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THU EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A
THIRD FRONT MAY ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
THU NIGHT INTO FRI, AFFECTING THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N WITH MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page