548
AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 19N TO INLAND
COLOMBIA NEAR 06N. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS
AT 16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W-78W HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (AL99). WITHIN THIS AREA, A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 19N TO INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR
06N. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 16N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 78W TO INLAND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTERWARD, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS
ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT COSTA RICA, AND THE NORTHERN SECTION OF
PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE, REFER TO YOUR
COUNTRY'S NATIONAL WEATHER BUREAU FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 19N
TO INLAND COLOMBIA, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
GUINEA CLOSE TO 10N14W TO 09N17W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 08N26W, TO 06N30W AND TO 06N39W. TO ITS WEST, A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 02N54W TO 07N30W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONEVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
39W-43W, WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-22W, AND
ALONG AND TO WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
04N TO 08N.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W WHILE A 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 25N89W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO THE 1010 MB LOW, AND ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW
TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W AND CONTINUES TO
19N91.5W. UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE BASIN SOUTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 86W. SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BETWEEN 86W AND
95W. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW
GULF. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER SOME SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, REMNANTS
OF RAFAEL, WILL MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NW BASIN AND DISSIPATING WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE LOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THU, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED AND WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
THE NE GULF THU AND EXIT THE NE BASIN THU NIGHT. MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THE
REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE HIGH
CHANCE FOR A BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 18N85W.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE FROM 70W EASTWARD. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SURROUND THE 73W/74W TROPICAL WAVE.
MODERATE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS THE 18N85W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD. SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTERWARD,
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, LARGE N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NE
OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N47W
TO 19N61W, AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 23N63W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT TO 30N68W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. A
STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHICH CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT IN LONG
PERIOD N SWELL. SURFACE RIDGING IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT IS
MAINTAINING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST LOW PRESSURE
OVER NW AFRICA. THIS IS SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS FROM THE COAST OF NW AFRICA TO ABOUT 30W WHERE MODERATE
SEAS ALSO PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF THE
BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FROM 19N57W TO 23N64W, THEN A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THAT POINT TO 31N69W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT, FROM 31N55W TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WED EVENING, THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA BY THU
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A THIRD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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