323
AXNT20 KNHC 130024
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA (AL99): LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W-78W HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WITHIN THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA, A
TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 19N TO INLAND
COLOMBIA NEAR 06N. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT
16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 78W
TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTERWARD,
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MEANDERS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INTERESTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND PORTIONS
OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT COSTA RICA, AND THE NORTHERN SECTION OF
PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE, REFER TO YOUR
COUNTRY'S NATIONAL WEATHER BUREAU FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 75W SOUTH
OF 19N TO INLAND COLOMBIA, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
GUINEA CLOSE TO 10N14W TO 09N17W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 08N26W, TO 06N30W AND TO 06N39W. TO ITS WEST, A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 02N54W TO 07N30W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-
39W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 09N
BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO
09N BETWEEN 39W-43W, WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-
22W, AND ALONG AND TO WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 04N TO 08N.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W WHILE A 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 25N89W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO THE 1010 MB LOW, AND ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW
TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W AND CONTINUES TO
19N91.5W. UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE BASIN SOUTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 86W. SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BETWEEN 86W AND
95W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO
THE SW GULF. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE REST OF THE
BASIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER SOME SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, REMNANTS
OF RAFAEL, WILL MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NW BASIN AND DISSIPATING WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE LOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THU, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED AND WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
THE NE GULF THU AND EXIT THE NE BASIN THU NIGHT. MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THE
REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE HIGH
CHANCE FOR A BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND ON A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE FROM
70W EASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SURROUND THE 75W
TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT 1008 MB LOW FROM 13N TO 17N PER THE
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASS OVER THAT PART OF THE SEA.
MODERATE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS THE 18N85W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD. SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTERWARD,
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MEANDERS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ELSEWHERE, LARGE LONG-PERIOD N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CORRECTED
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N47W
TO 19N61W, AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 23N63W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT TO 30N68W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION MOVING E TO THE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT TO 57W AND N
OF 27N, AND ALSO WEST OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
66W-70W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS
AS WELL AS SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN LONG-PERIOD N SWELL. THE HIGHEST
OF THESE SEAS IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SURFACE RIDGING TO
THE E OF THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN WESTERN AFRICA. THIS
IS SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS FROM THE COAST OF
NW AFRICA TO ABOUT 30W WHERE MODERATE SEAS ALSO PREVAIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING E IS TO
THE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT TO 57W AND N OF 27N AND ALSO WEST OF
THE WARM FRONT FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W-70W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF THE
BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FROM 19N57W TO 23N64W, THEN A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THAT POINT TO 31N69W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT, FROM 31N55W TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WED EVENING, THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA BY THU
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A THIRD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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