038
AXNT20 KNHC 131237
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE INFORMATION ABOUT
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AT 48 HOURS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE INVEST AREA AL99
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
...IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
INVEST AREA AL99 INCLUDING GALE-FORCE WINDS...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 77W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD ACROSS A 1008
MB LOW (AL99) TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 5 KT. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINS OVER
WESTERN HAITI THROUGH TODAY, AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHILE THE DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AT 48 HOURS, FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK, AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV, FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
MOIST CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK
METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR COUNTRY'S NATIONAL WEATHER
BUREAU FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A TROPICAL WAVE
RELATED TO AL99 AT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 10N15W, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
09N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 09N17W ACROSS 07N30W TO
08N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 11N
BETWEEN 10W AND 41W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL, IS JUST S OF LOUISIANA ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ONGOING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL, IS
FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WILL REACH
STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF EARLY ON THU AND
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REACH THE SE GULF WATERS BY TUE
WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT INVEST AREA AL99
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, AL99, AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND MODERATE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST EAST OF THE LOW, INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN, TRADE WINDS
ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE. SEAS ARE MAINLY SLIGHT BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF AL99, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTERWARD, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF
HAITI DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND OVER THE NW AND PORTIONS OF
THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH GALE FORCE SPEED BY THU NIGHT,
BUILDING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N77W WITH FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND IT, N OF 26N, AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN
50W AND 65W. MODERATE FOR FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AS WELL AS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS, WHICH IS INTERSECTED BY A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 20N51W. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND SEAS ARE
MODERATE TO ROUGH TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N77W WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THU
EVENING. ONGOING ROUGH SEAS N OF 29N WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N55W TO PUERTO RICO THIS
EVENING AND THEN EXIT THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THU
NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE
WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI, AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 26N
WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH SUN.
MT
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