759
AXNT20 KNHC 131759
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1740 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
...IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
INVEST AREA AL99, INCLUDING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS...
A 77W/78W TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD, MOVING
WESTWARD 05 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS. CURRENT PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD FROM 66W
WESTWARD. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 270 NM OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 150
NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD. MODERATE
OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD. SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOVEMENT WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANYONE WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AND IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. EXPECT STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND GALE-FORCE WINDS EVENTUALLY, AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FOR THE THE 30-HOUR FORECAST FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W, AND FOR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W, INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV, FOR MORE DETAILS.
A SEPARATE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 17N85W.
PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT.
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN IN COSTA RICA AND IN PANAMA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA AND IN WESTERN PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK METEOROLOGISTS.
PLEASE, REFER TO YOUR COUNTRY'S NATIONAL WEATHER BUREAU FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W. PLEASE, REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA
LEONE CLOSE TO 08N13W, TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W,
TO 05N24W 04N30W 03N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A NW-TO-SE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W 22N86W.
PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 150
NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS, ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
88W WESTWARD. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 24N93W.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE
OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE SEAS, FROM 3 FEET TO 5 FEET, ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION IS FOR SLIGHT SEAS CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL, JUST S OF LOUISIANA IS
FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WILL REACH
STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF EARLY ON THU AND
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REACH THE S GULF WATERS BY TUE WITH
DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
HIGH CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. READ ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IN COSTA RICA AND IN PANAMA, ALSO. THE WIND SPEED
INFORMATION, AND THE SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION, FOR THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, ARE INCLUDED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ALSO.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 13/1200 UTC, ARE: 1.40 IN TRINIDAD; 0.56 IN CURACAO; 0.32 IN
KINGSTON IN JAMAICA; AND 0.06 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THIS
INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING ON THU FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN
RELATED TO INVEST AL99. A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, AL99, OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 74W AND
84W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTERWARD, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 27N70W, TO THE NW BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N79W. PRECIPITATION: NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 67W EASTWARD. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO: STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 52W AND 61W; STRONG N TO NE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM
27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. THE FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS TO
48 HOURS CONSISTS OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N31W, TO 25N40W 22N47W.
PRECIPITATION: RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO: WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS,
AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL, FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W
AND 61W, INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 13/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.24 IN BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 26N78W. ONGOING ROUGH SEAS N OF 29N WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM
31N55W TO PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AND THEN EXIT THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 26N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH SUN.
MT/ERA
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