331
AXNT20 KNHC 132340
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 79.5W
AT 13/0000 UTC OR 230 NM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER, MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS W OF THE LOW CENTER AND COVERS THE WATERS 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO, TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND MEANDER
NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING, IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND WESTERN NICARAGUA, POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE NINETEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST,THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NINETEEN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA: PERSISTENT
SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PRESENT MODERATE SW
FLOW OFFSHORE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN COSTA
RICA AND IN WESTERN PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE REFER
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 78W AT 1800 UTC IS NOW CLASSIFIED
AS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN. PLEASE, REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 07N17W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N17W TO 05N25W TO 03N40W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL, EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA
TO NEAR 25N89W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB LOCATED
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY N OF 27N TO ABOUT 93W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ONGOING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS REACHING CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS E OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL PREVAIL E OF 90W THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEGINNING ON FRI. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE RECENTLY UPGRADED POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN REACH THE S GULF WATERS WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE, READ
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA, AND MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
WINDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT DOMINATE THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS OVER EASTERN CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NINETEEN WILL MOVE TO 16.2N 80.9W THU MORNING,
16.3N 83.0W THU AFTERNOON, 16.4N 84.3W FRI MORNING, 16.4N 84.8W
FRI AFTERNOON, 16.3N 84.8W SAT MORNING, AND 16.1N 84.7W SAT
AFTERNOON. NINETEEN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
TO 16.3N 85.4W BY SUN AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
FOLLOWS THE FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND IS CURRENTLY REACHING 20N W OF 55W.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHILE FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 26N AND E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 50W. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS
E OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
31N30W TO 22N45W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 40W TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS, WITH SEAS IN THE
6 TO 7 FT RANGE, IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHERN WESTERN SAHARAN AND MAURITANIA TO ABOUT 20W. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, ONGOING ROUGH SEAS N OF 27N WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM
31N55W TO PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AND THEN EXIT THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 26N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH SUN.
GR
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