939
AXNT20 KNHC 140857
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN: IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT
14/0900 UTC OR 240 NM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF
NINETEEN, WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION IN OUTER BANDS BETWEEN 120 NM
AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT, AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 480 NM IN THE
W QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING, IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, PARTICULARLY HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND WESTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST NINETEEN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA: PERSISTENT
SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PRESENT MODERATE SW
FLOW OFFSHORE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
NINETEEN MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN COSTA RICA AND IN WESTERN PANAMA. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO
22N62W TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20.5N75W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 360
NM E AND SE OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 64W. A LARGE ARE OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS COVERS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE AN AREA
OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IS NORTH OF 22N AND EAST OF THE
FRONT, EXCEPT NOW TO GALE FORCE NORTH OF 29N. THE SOUTHERLY GALES
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH OF 31N BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS SOUTH OF 31N. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS COVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE TO S. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI, AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 25N WITH
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUN, REACHING GALE
FORCE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W FRI EVENING AND SPREADING
EAST TO 60W INTO EARLY SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND
FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE AT 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 07N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N15W TO 03N22W TO 07N38W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 10W AND
30W, WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AT WESTERN CUBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN US
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT EAST OF THE TROUGH, HIGHEST IN AND NEAR
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF
COASTAL WATERS REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI,
TEXAS. FRESH N WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT PER THE LATEST IN-SITU
OBSERVATIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED EAST
OF THE TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 15.9N 81.6W AT 4 AM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. NINETEEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.9N 83.1W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 16.0N
84.4W FRI MORNING, 16.1N 85.1W FRI AFTERNOON, NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR 15.9N 85.3W SAT MORNING AND SAT AFTERNOON, AND INLAND TO
15.9N 85.8W SUN MORNING. NINETEEN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO 17.1N 87.8W NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MON.
INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NINETEEN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO THE LEE OF CUBA AND EAST OF 85W.
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. MAINLY
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT SOUTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 80W AND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHER THAN THE
CONVECTION DESCRIBED WITH NINETEEN ABOVE, A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA TO
NEAR THE COAST OF JAMAICA, AHEAD OF AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR THE A-B-C ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE
NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 15.9N 81.6W AT 4 AM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. NINETEEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.9N 83.1W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 16.0N
84.4W FRI MORNING, 16.1N 85.1W FRI AFTERNOON, STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST NEAR 15.9N 85.3W SAT MORNING AND SAT AFTERNOON, AND INLAND
TO 15.9N 85.8W SUN MORNING. NINETEEN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 17.1N 87.8W NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WEST OF 75W AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EAST OF 75W WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHER SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT OCCASIONALLY IN ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT EACH WILL SUPPORT TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN
THE ATLANTIC.
OTHER THAN THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27.5N27.5W AROUND 1018 MB.
LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE UNDER THE HIGH ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE MAINLY 6 TO 9
FT IN MAINLY NW TO N SWELL EAST OF THE FRONT, EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN CUBA. ONGOING ROUGH SEAS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 23N55W
TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT, EXITING BY EARLY FRI WHILE
WEAKENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI, AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUN, REACHING GALE FORCE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W
FRI EVENING AND SPREADING EAST TO 60W INTO EARLY SAT. ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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