809
AXNT20 KNHC 142352
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 84.0W AT 14/0000 UTC
OR 110 NM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 12 FT ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. CONVECTIVE
BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CONVECTIVE BAND
IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND IS ALSO AFFECTING
PARTS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA, BELIZE AND MOST OF
HONDURAS. A WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF SARA WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE ON
SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IF THE CENTER OF SARA REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
QUINTANA ROO, SARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE N SWELL
GENERATED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NE OF BERMUDA
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 12
TO 14 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W BY FRI MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SAT. THIS EVENING, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE
OFF OF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINAS BORDER AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. BY FRI MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CAPE CANAVERAL WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS. BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
29N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BY SUN MORNING, THE FRONT WILL
GO FROM 31N55W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO, BUT WITH ONLY FRESH WINDS
NORTH OF 29N. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS SECOND
FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 12
TO 23 FT ARE PREDICTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY FRI NIGHT,
COVERING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 06N16W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 06N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND RUNS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS WELL DEFINED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT, EXCEPT N OF 28N WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THESE TWO FEATURES.
MOSTLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE SE GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONT WILL MERGE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA HAS FORMED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANY LONGER AND SHOULD INSTEAD DISSIPATE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG SE RETURN FLOW
SHOULD SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF ON MON, AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA. WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO SARA DOMINATE THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
ASIDE FROM SARA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA, AND IN THE THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
PARTICULARLY W OF 75W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
REACHED THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND AND PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL MOVE TO 16.0N 84.7W
FRI MORNING, 16.1N 85.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 16.1N 85.9W SAT MORNING,
16.1N 86.4W SAT AFTERNOON, 16.3N 87.1W SUN MORNING, AND 16.7N
88.1W SUN AFTERNOON. SARA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICAN NEAR 19.3N 90.8W MON
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING TOMORROW AND EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LARGE N SWELL SHOULD BE OCCURRING WITHIN THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES. THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND
THROUGH FRI KEEPING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THEN, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD BY FRI NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST REGION THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO PUERTO RICO. A WIDE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG
S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 20N E OF FRONT TO ABOUT 45W. MAINLY
FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. BETWEEN
FRONTS, A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING STRONG SW WINDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS NORTH OF 29N EAST OF 65W. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
PULL NORTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE N
SWELL DUE TO THE LOW WILL CONTINUED SWEEPING ACROSS OUR WATERS
BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT. THIS EVENING, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF OF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINAS BORDER AND QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR WATERS BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS FRONT IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.
GR
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