860
AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 84.8W AT 15/0600 UTC
OR 70 NM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 12 FT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF SARA.
CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM
WHERE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS. THIS CONVECTIVE BAND IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA,
BELIZE, MOST OF HONDURAS, AND FAR NORTHERN NICARAGUA. A WESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY
LATE SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL MOVE
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
THEN APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE ON SUNDAY. SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THE
CENTER OF SARA REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
QUINTANA ROO, SARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE COULD RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE N SWELL
GENERATED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NE OF BERMUDA
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 12
TO 16 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W BY FRI MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SAT. LATER TONIGHT, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE
OFF OF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINAS BORDER AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. BY FRI MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CAPE CANAVERAL WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS, INCREASING TO GALE FORCE NORTH OF 28.5N ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING. BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY SUN MORNING,
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, BUT
WITH ONLY FRESH WINDS NORTH OF 29N. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THIS SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS OF 12 TO 28 FT IN NW SWELL ARE PREDICTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, COVERING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 07N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N17W TO 07N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN
26W AND 35W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND RUNS FROM
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO.
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ABOUT 60 NM E OF THESE TWO FEATURES. MOSTLY MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE SE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MERGE LATER
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM APALACHEE BAY, FLORIDA TO
22N92W TO 20.5N97W. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND IT.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER,
THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SHOULD INSTEAD DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MON.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW, LOCALLY
STRONG, WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUE, MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 78W IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM SARA.
ASIDE FROM SARA, GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES, AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL MOVE TO 15.9N 85.3W
FRI MORNING, 16.0N 86.0W FRI EVENING, 16.1N 86.4W SAT MORNING,
16.3N 87.0W SAT EVENING, 16.6N 87.9W SUN MORNING, AND MOVE INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 17.4N 89.2W SUN EVENING. SARA WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN
LATE MON. MEANWHILE, TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LARGE N
SWELL WILL BE IMPACTING OCCURRING WITHIN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF SARA, LOCALLY FRESH AT TIMES SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST REGION THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO NEAR 19N64W. A WIDE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 200 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 20N BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND ABOUT 40W. MAINLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 37N14W, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NW
WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. AWAY
FROM THESE FEATURES, MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SEEING
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 20N55W
TO JUST NORTH OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO JUST NORTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE N SWELL DUE TO THE LOW WILL
CONTINUED SWEEPING ACROSS OUR WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO EARLY
SAT. MEANWHILE, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE
GEORGIA/CAROLINAS BORDER TONIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR WATERS. TOMORROW MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
31N75W TO CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS,
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE NORTH OF 28.5N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT FRI EVENING. BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY SUN MORNING, THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM 31N55W TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, BUT WITH ONLY
FRESH WINDS NORTH OF 29N. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS SECOND
FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT
OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
ADAMS
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