116
AXNT20 KNHC 151806
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 86.1W AT 15/1800 UTC
OR 30 NM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 2 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 14 FT. BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION EXTEND NW THROUGH E OF SARA, AND COVER THE
AREA SOUTH OF 20.5N TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, BETWEEN 80W AND
88W. SIMILAR RAINBANDS ALSO EXTEND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. A
CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ALONG OR NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE
SARA BEGINS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTION SAT NIGHT, THEN APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE EARLY SUN.
SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHEN THE CENTER OF SARA MOVES OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SARA
WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SARA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW TO N
SWELL GENERATED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NE OF
BERMUDA IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, PRODUCING
SEAS OF TO 12 TO 15 FT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 48W AND 65W. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, SUBSIDING SAT. MEANWHILE, A NEW COLD FRONT HAS
ENTERED THE SW N ATLANTIC, AND IS ANCHORED TO A 999 MB SURFACE
LOW. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NNW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 31N BEHIND IT, AND
GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD,
GALE-FORCE NW WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF 31N THIS
EVENING, AND SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF 31N BY SAT EVENING AS THE
LOW AND COLD FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE GALE-FORCE WINDS. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A NARROW 90 NM WIDE BAND EAST OF THE FRONT
AND N OF 29N TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. BY SAT MORNING, THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY SUN
MORNING, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N55W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO,
BUT WITH ONLY FRESH WINDS N OF 29N BY THEN. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10
FT AND GREATER IN NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, REACHING AS FAR SOUTH OF 21N IN SUN, BEFORE FADING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EQUATORIAL AFRICA AND REACHES
NEAR THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10.5N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 06N38W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09.5N E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA, AND FROM 09N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 20W
AND 42W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT MEYERS,
THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 19.5N93W THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR
THE MEXICAN COAST NORTH OF VERACRUZ. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FT IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND WEST OF 95W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NE TO E AT GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEED, WITH 2 TO
4 FT SEAS EXCEPT TO 5 FT IN THE FLORIDA CURRENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM SARA IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN, AWAY FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SE RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OFFSHORE OF TEXAS
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TROPICAL STORM SARA IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE SURROUNDING
THE REMNANT LOW OF SARA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN WEST OF 79W IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
SARA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ASIDE FROM SARA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE FOUND EAST OF 75W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS WEST
OF 75W. SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS EAST OF 75W, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT
THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES, AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WATERS N OF 17.5N.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE APPROACHING BELIZE, AND ULTIMATELY MOVING
ONSHORE IN BELIZE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM SARA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL
REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ON SUN
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
AN UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE SW N ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 20N57W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH ENTRANCE TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE, THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND NE AND
CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 24N WITHIN 180-240 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. A 1014 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N65W, PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE
NEW FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SE UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE NEW
COLD FRONT OFF OF FLORIDA, FRESH TO STRONG W TO SW DOMINATE THE
WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 70W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS EAST OF
THE FRONT AND EXTEND INTO THE TRADE WIND ZONE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N21W THEN BECOMES A FRONTAL
TROUGH TO 29N37W. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT FROM 14N TO
22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W DUE TO A FETCH OF LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
THERE COMBINED WITH NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LARGE N
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO EARLY SAT. A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA WILL
PROGRESS QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST=SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT, WITH
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
26.5N AND EAST 79.5W, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF
29.5N TONIGHT INTO SAT. BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY SUN MORNING, THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 30N55W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO, BUT WITH ONLY FRESH
WINDS N OF 29N BY THEN. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THIS SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY HIGH
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT POSSIBLE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W
ON SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE
NE WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.
STRIPLING
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