493
AXNT20 KNHC 160915
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0810 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900 UTC
OR 20 NM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS, STATIONARY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 16
FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED AND NOTED FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE TODAY, WITH A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE APPROACHING BELIZE, AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE IN
BELIZE DURING THE DAY ON SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
TODAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUN BEFORE
LANDFALL IN BELIZE, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. SARA
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT OR MON AS IT CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL CAUSE
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL
SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN
STATE OF QUINTANA ROO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST SARA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A STORM FORCE 989 MB LOW JUST WEST OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W TO 27N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 28.5N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W WHICH ARE SHIFTING
E WITH THE FRONT. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 45 KT BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N57W TO THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE SUN WHILE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY ROUGH SEAS IS
FOLLOWING THIS SECOND FRONT AND WILL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
VERY HIGH SEAS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EQUATORIAL AFRICA TO THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO JUST OFFSHORE AT 07.5N13.5W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N13.5W TO 04N33W TO 05N45W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 13N
BETWEEN 13W AND 29W, WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 37W AND 42W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 23.5N89W CONTINUES AS STATIONARY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EAST OF
92W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST OF 92W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED JUST NW OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT PORTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FAR SE GULF
LATER TODAY WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING WEST AS A TROUGH THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN BY EARLY SUN, THEN LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH MON. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUE, REACHING FROM APALACHEE
BAY TO TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED, WITH REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN, DISSIPATING AS IT
APPROACHES THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AFTERNOON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16.1N 86.3W
AT 4 AM EST, AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
999 MB. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM SARA AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ASIDE FROM SARA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND
EAST OF 81W, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
ALSO OFFSHORE EASTERN PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
FOUND WEST OF 81W AND AWAY FROM SARA. SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FT ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 82W, EXCEPT FOR
POCKETS OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS
ARE 3 TO 7 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM SARA. MEANWHILE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES, AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST, SARA WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TO 16.3N 86.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE AT 16.7N 87.6W SUN
MORNING, INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 17.3N 89.1W SUN
AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 18.6N 90.8W
MON MORNING, DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE MON AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM THE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM SARA,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON SUN THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SLIP SE OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL MID-WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 19.5N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES,
FROM PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 22N AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ABOUT 42W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL, EXCEPT MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 60W OUTSIDE OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GALE FORCE WINDS, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND AREA. FARTHER E, OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC, ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 23N16W TO 23N23W, THEN BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO
24N33W. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL ARE NORTH OF THIS THIRD
FRONT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AWAY FROM THESE FEATURES, ALONG WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 12W
AND 23W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING E AS A REMNANT TROUGH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT, AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION, WILL REACH FROM 31N57W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
SUN WHILE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY ROUGH SEAS IS FOLLOWING
THIS SECOND FRONT AND WILL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY HIGH
SEAS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES MID-WEEK WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
LEWITSKY
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