255
AXNT20 KNHC 161754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 86.8W AT 16/1800 UTC
OR 20 NM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 17
FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS,
BELIZE, AND QUINTANA ROO. A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TODAY BEFORE APPROACHING BELIZE
TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVING ONSHORE IN BELIZE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER
LANDFALL. SARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL
CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL
SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN
STATE OF QUINTANA ROO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST SARA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 992 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W
TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N70W. GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W, AND PROPAGATING
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N57W TO THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE SUN WHILE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
BEHIND THIS FRONT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM 31N60W TO 25N72W TO 31N77W, WITH PEAK SEAS TO 23 FT NEAR
30N67W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N12W TO 05N45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ANALYZED AT THIS TIME.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE, E WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FAR SE GULF
LATER TODAY WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING WEST AS A TROUGH THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN BY EARLY SUN, THEN LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH MON. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUE, REACHING FROM APALACHEE
BAY TO TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED, WITH REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN, DISSIPATING AS IT
APPROACHES THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
OUTSIDE OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
SARA, THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE 3-5
FT IN THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 16N TO 19N, BETWEEN 76W AND 82W, INCLUDING OVER
JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SARA WILL MOVE TO 16.4N 86.9W THIS EVENING, 16.9N
88.0W SUN MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 17.8N 89.6W SUN EVENING, INLAND TO 19.2N 90.8W MON
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING. AWAY FROM THE DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM SARA, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG E TO NE WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON SUN THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
MID-WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A GALE WARNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE WARNING ABOVE, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MODERATE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH 6-8 FT SEAS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, NE TO E WINDS
ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS ARE 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING E AS A REMNANT TROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 28.5N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W
WHICH ARE SHIFTING E WITH THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N57W TO
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUN WHILE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOLLOWING THIS SECOND FRONT AND WILL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH VERY HIGH SEAS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE
WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES MID-WEEK
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
MAHONEY
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