992
AXNT20 KNHC 170553
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 87.6W AT 17/0600 UTC
OR 70 NM SSE OF BELIZE CITY, MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
ESTIMATED NEAR 12 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 75W. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE
LATER TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
LANDFALL ON SUNDAY, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY. SARA IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS ITS
REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N58.5W TO 24N60W, AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE
LARGELY DIMINISHED, WITH ANY REMAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY
RELATED TO ONGOING CONVECTION. VERY ROUGH SEAS PERSIST, WITH SEAS
IN EXCESS OF 12 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 74W.
PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AROUND 21 FT NEAR 29N65W. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 27N55W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY
MON, DISSIPATING OVER THE SE WATERS THEREAFTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH VERY HIGH SEAS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W TONIGHT.
SEAS THEN LOOK TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO 04N23W TO 08N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 40W, WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE END OF
THE ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS
NEAR 22N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS PORTION OF THE
FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND E OF 90W, MODERATE TO FRESH E
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OBSERVED. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS ALONG 23N REACHING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EAST OF 95W WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WEST OF 95W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BY
EARLY SUN, THEN LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF MON NIGHT, REACHING FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO,
MEXICO EARLY WED, WITH REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE
OF THE BASIN. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN, DISSIPATING AS IT
APPROACHES THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
AWAY FROM SARA, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN,
SPARKING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE FRONT. AREAS OF CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN SARA AND
NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ALSO LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO
STRONG E TO NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ACROSS MORE OF THE SW CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD AND
MONA PASSAGES. MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THESE
REGIONS AND PASSAGES. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS SEEING GENTLE
TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL MOVE TO NEAR BELIZE AT
16.7N 88.0W SUN MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17.6N 89.6W SUN
EVENING, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. AWAY FROM THE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM SARA, FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY
MON. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON SUN THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
BEHIND IT, REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS LATE
THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE ATLANTIC.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL EVENT EXTENDS FROM
31N58.5W TO 24N60W AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY 75-100 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND IS SPARKING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 230 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N46W TO 23N49W, WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE FRONT.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION AND MARINE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTS
AND OTHER LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE
DEPICTED VIA RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 30W TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 16N. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AS WELL. A LOW NORTH OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 18W AND 33W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT FROM 31N58.5W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND CONTINUING AS STATIONARY TO ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA HAS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITHIN 90-180 NM AHEAD OF
IT, ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 27N55W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE EARLY MON, DISSIPATING OVER THE SE WATERS THEREAFTER. VERY
ROUGH SEAS IS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH VERY HIGH SEAS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W
TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS ON
TUE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES MID-WEEK WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
ADAMS
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