480
AXNT20 KNHC 181447
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1444 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATER NEAR 11N15W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N17W TO
04N30W TO 09N48W. PLENTIFUL SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 48W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND 18W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N77W AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN
FLOW, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS
THESE WINDS, EXCEPT 8 TO 11 FT IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AT THE
TAIL END OF THE LONG SE FETCH REGION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE REMNANTS OF SARA ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW, EXCEPT FRESH TO
STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS COAST
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT, REACHING FROM S-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE, THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO
TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WED.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY EARLY THU WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
SARA, CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE COLD FORNT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THEN BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO NEAR 17N75.5W
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE
IN THE LEE OF CUBA TO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN, ACROSS THE APPROACH
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT TO
GENTLE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN, 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE WHERE THE FRESH TO STRONG WIND
PLUMES ARE, AND 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,
EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT NEAR ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF SARA, AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE
DISSIPATING. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
TO SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT TODAY.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH
BY MID-WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT,
REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NE NICARAGUA EARLY FRI WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE, SEAS OF
AROUND 8 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL
SUBSIDE TODAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. REMNANT SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL ARE
DECAYING, BUT A REINFORCING TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE
N-CENTRAL WATERS IS BRINGING REINFORCING SWELL AS WELL AS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NEAR 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW
WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 28.5N IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION. TO THE EAST,
A 1010 MB LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N23W WITH A RELATED
TROUGH FROM 3016W TO 19N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. BROAD RIDGING WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N51W TO
18N63W. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LARGE SEAS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE
WATERS ON TUE, WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES LATE WED NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THIS FRONT
MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page