384
AXNT20 KNHC 182230
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC TUE NOV 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 10N16W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N16W TO 07N32W TO 09N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 48W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N78W AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN
FLOW. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS THESE WINDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE REMNANTS OF SARA ARE
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE E UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW, EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG FROM
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS COAST WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF TONIGHT, REACHING FROM S-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE, THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO,
MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WED. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY EARLY THU WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SARA,
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
16N64W WITH A TROUGH FROM THAT POINT TO 14N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE IN THE LEE OF CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN THE NW CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF JAMAICA, AND
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, 4 TO 6 FT
ELSEWHERE WHERE THE LOCALLY FRESH WIND PLUMES ARE, AND 3 FT OR
LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT NEAR
ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF SARA, AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
DISSIPATING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA,
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH
BY TUE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT,
REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NE NICARAGUA EARLY FRI WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE, SEAS OF
AROUND 8 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL
SUBSIDE TODAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W
SOUTHWEST TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SEAS RANGE 8 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. THE REINFORCING
TROUGH IS BRINGING REINFORCING SWELL AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 28.5N IN THE AREA
OF CONVECTION. TO THE EAST, A 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 30N24W WITH A
RELATED TROUGH EXTENDING NE OF THE LOW. MODERATE WINDS AND 8 TO 11
FT SEAS ARE NEAR THE LOW. BROAD RIDGING WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SEAS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL CLIP
THE NE WATERS ON TUE, WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES LATE WED
NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THIS FRONT MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
EARLY FRI.
AREINHART
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