196
AXNT20 KNHC 190549
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC TUE NOV 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GAMBIA AND SOUTHERN SENEGAL, REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N18W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N18W TO 04N34W, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO
06N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 200 NM NORTH, AND 250 NM SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO
TO A 1004 MB LOW, REMNANTS OF SARA NEAR 23N93W. CONVERGENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THESE FEATURES ARE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A COLD FRONT RUNS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR GALVESTON, TEXAS TO BEYOND THE TEXAS-
MEXICO BORDER. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR NEW
ORLEANS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, FLORIDA. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES AT THE NORTHWESTERN, NORTHEASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 9
FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
AT THE EASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF
3 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE EASTERLY SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE
WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA, FLORIDA TO NEAR
TAMPICO, MEXICO TUE EVENING. IT WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND
REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY, FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED
EVENING, THEN EXITING THE BASIN LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. MEANWHILE,
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BY SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS. PATCHY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 80
NM SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. FARTHER SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD
TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE WATERS JUST
NORTH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN WED NIGHT, REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
NICARAGUA BY EARLY FRI, THEN FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BORDER EARLY SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, ACTIVE CONVECTION
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
EASTERN BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N47W TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NEAR AND UP TO 250 NM
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF 55W. PATCHY SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WEST OF
55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
COUPLING WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N24W TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR AND WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
ENHANCED BY THE SAME UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE SAHARA COAST, AND
BETWEEN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND MAURITANIA COAST. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT IN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL
ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH S
TO SW WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT ARE NOTED NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W, AND NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 3 TO 6 FT EXIST NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AFRICA
COAST AND FLORIDA-GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
05N TO 20N BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AFRICA COAST AND LESSER ANTILLES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO SE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS ARE SEEN. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND
SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N76W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A REINFORCING TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 28N TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING
WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO REINFORCE NORTHERLY SWELL CURRENTLY
OF 8 TO 12 FT N OF 25N AND E OF 68W THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WED
NIGHT, AND REACH FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING.
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND REACH FROM 31N64W TO
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI EVENING, AND FROM 31N59W TO
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA SAT EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.
CHAN
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