302
AXNT20 KNHC 191006
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC TUE NOV 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 10N18W TO 04N32W TO 07N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN
11W AND 44W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES, LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO NEAR 24.5N98W. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT ARE AHEAD OF IT TO THE E OF 92W. MEANWHILE, 1004 MB
LOW PRESSURE, PARTIALLY THE REMNANTS OF SARA, ARE NEAR 24N93W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO MEXICO NEAR 19.5N96.5W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS,
HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TO THE NE OF THE LOW,
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE WEST OF 92W AND EAST OF THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, EXCEPT 3 FT OR LESS IN THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE WEST
OF THE FRONT IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SE OF PENSACOLA, FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO THIS
EVENING, FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY, FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED
EVENING, EXITING THE BASIN BY EARLY THU. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. MEANWHILE,
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SARA, IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N OF
22N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THIS CONVECTION AND THE REMNANTS WILL
MERGE WITH NEW CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE BASIN SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE A-B-C ISLANDS.
PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND
UP TO 45 NM SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. TO THE E, A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N55.5W TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TO JUST N OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 17N WITHIN 120 NM
SE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE W OF
THE FRONT, FROM NEAR SW HAITI TO 13N76W. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH
TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W, ALONG
WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 3
FT OR LESS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 16N WITH SIMILAR
SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND DOWNWIND OF
ATLANTIC PASSAGES, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT, REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NICARAGUA BY
EARLY FRI, THEN FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA BORDER EARLY SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
TODAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 21N54W THEN CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NEAR AND UP TO 240 NM E AND
SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 26N, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED W OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N76W AT 1019 MB. GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF THE
FRONT. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE FOUND N OF 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 68W
IN NORTHERLY SWELL, WITH 3 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N42W TO 07N49W IS GENERATING CONVECTION
AS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N24W TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR AND W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W.
ENHANCED BY THE SAME UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE SAHARA COAST, AND
BETWEEN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND MAURITANIA COAST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT MENTIONED
ABOVE, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN THE FAR
SE WATERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N75.56W DOMINATES THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
A REINFORCING TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NE WATERS LATER
TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALSO REINFORCE NORTHERLY SWELL CURRENTLY OF 8 TO 12 FT N OF 25N
AND E OF 68W THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT, REACHING FROM 31N70W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING, FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS FRI EVENING, AND FROM 31N60W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
SAT EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 12
FT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.
LEWITSKY
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