742
AXNT20 KNHC 201755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC WED NOV 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1740 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NW-TO-N GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE IMMINENT IN THE SW
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT FIRST COLD FRONT IS
PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, TO THE CENTRAL GULF, TO THE
SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N96W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND THE
ROUGH SEAS, WILL BE FROM 21N SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT WESTWARD.
EXPECT: STRONG NW-TO-N WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM THE FRONT WESTWARD.
EXPECT MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, ELSEWHERE FROM 91W WESTWARD.
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND THE ROUGH SEAS, ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING TOMORROW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT, FROM 23N NORTHWARD. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN GENERAL ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 330 NM TO THE WNW OF THE
FIRST COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N IN THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 23N IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 28N IN FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W; AND
FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE, TO 09N22W, 05N34W
05N43W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 42W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR ALL THE
INFORMATION THAT IS ABOUT THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT,
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE OTHER WIND SPEEDS, THE SEA HEIGHTS,
AND THE PRECIPITATION.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA TO TAMPICO,
MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FORECAST TO REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE BASIN. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MARINE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM W TO E THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
SUN WHEN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES
THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA, CLOSE TO 18N62W, JUST TO THE NORTH OF
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, AND JUST TO THE EAST OF ANGUILLA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/64W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD TO VENEZUELA.
PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N
TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND THE 62W/64W SURFACE TROUGH, AND FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 70W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N71W 11N76W, BEYOND 13N84W AT THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.
MOSTLY MODERATE TO SOME FRESH SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. MODERATE OR SLOWER SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. SLIGHT
SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 20/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.23 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS;
0.19 IN GUADELOUPE; AND 0.04 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THIS
INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN
TODAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, REACHING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY THU MORNING, AND FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BORDER
EARLY ON SAT, WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N44W, TO 24N50W, TO
CLOSE TO 18N62W, JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF ANGUILLA. FRESH TO STRONG W-TO-SW WINDS ARE
FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND 60W. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND
THE DISSIPATING FRONT. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND THE 62W/64W
SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N72W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT
NORTHWESTWARD. STRONG SW WINDS ARE FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 77W WESTWARD.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N45W 09N48W. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 08N TO 20N
BETWEEN 36W AND 53W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 28N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE 26N
NORTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD, ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A 30N18W
23N16W SURFACE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM
32W EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 24W EASTWARD.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE FROM THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL ARE FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
70W EASTWARD. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM 70W WESTWARD.
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN THE FAR SE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. IN THE NE WATERS, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO REINFORCE
NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF
22N AND E OF 67W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NW WATERS LATER TODAY, REACHING FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY
THU MORNING, FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM
31N61W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT MORNING. THEN, THE
FRONT WILL STALL IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MT/GR
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