143
AXNT20 KNHC 202148
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC THU NOV 21 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. A 1029 MB HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD, SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS
OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ ARE GOING TO PEAK AT STRONG TO GALE- FORCE,
WHILE SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
NO MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME. THE
ITCZ ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE/GUINEA BORDER
NEAR 09N13W TO 09N20W TO 05N35W TO 04N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
12N OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN, AND IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING
NEAR VERACRUZ.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF
VERACRUZ, MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO. RECENT BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
VERACRUZ THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM W TO E THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
SUN WHEN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, ALONG 64W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHT ARE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, REACHING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY THU MORNING, AND FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA BY FRI
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BORDER EARLY ON SAT, WHERE THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN
MARTIMES TO 31N47W TO 27N60W TO 31N75W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
REACHES FROM 31N45W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH NORTH
OF 27N. WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W, SUPPORTING GENTLE BREEZES AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 60W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS NORTH OF 27N WEST
OF 72W, BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS WITH 8 TO 10 FT
COMBINED SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL NEAR THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. FARTHER EAST, A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N27W IS BREAKING UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4
TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC, SOUTH OF
31N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THU, AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT ENTERING
THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU MORNING, FROM 31N68W TO
EASTERN CUBA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM 31N61W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ON SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THAT GENERAL
VICINITY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
CHRISTENSEN
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