954
AXNT20 KNHC 210555
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC THU NOV 21 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A 1025 MB HIGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OFFSHORE FROM VERACRUZ, WINDS
ARE PEAKING AT STRONG TO GALE-FORCE, WHILE SEAS ARE RANGING
BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FT. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING LATE THU MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
MOST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. AN
ITCZ STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN SIERRA
LEONE TO 06N34W, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO 11N42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS UP TO 180 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
EAST OF 39W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 39W AND 43W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING
NEAR VERACRUZ.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR NAPLES, FLORIDA ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. OUTSIDE THE GALE WARNING AREA, FRESH
TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WITH 6 TO 10 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTERWARD, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE GULF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY SUN, SUSTAINING GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING PATCHY SHOWERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO
5 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CHANNEL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED NORTH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE
TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY THU
MORNING. IT WILL THEN REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NEAR THE COSTA RICA-PANAMA BORDER SAT MORNING, WHERE
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH SAT BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER QUICKLY NE TO E AND DIMINISH MODESTLY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N45W TO 27N60W, THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
28N70W. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE FOUND UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 28N46W.
PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 100
NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. FARTHER EAST, CONVERGENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. AT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC,
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
31N21W CONTINUES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 7
FT ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 72W AND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA
COAST. FARTHER EAST NEAR THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED
EARLIER, MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN
LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 72W. TO THE
SOUTH FROM 16N TO 26N/28N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS/LEEWARD
ISLANDS, GENTLE E TO SSE WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MODERATE
NORTHERLY SWELL EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THU, AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT ENTERING
THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU MORNING, FROM 31N68W TO
EASTERN CUBA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM 31N61W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ON SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THAT GENERAL
VICINITY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.
CHAN
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