353
AXNT20 KNHC 080014
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT DEC 7 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR FREETOWN, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N20W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N20W THROUGH 02N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF AMAPA STATE, BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN THE LIBERIA
COAST AND 20W, AND UP TO 150 NM NORTH AND 100 NM SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO A 1022 LOW NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS.
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE FOUND UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT EAST OF 92W. WEST OF 92W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FT ARE SEEN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO SE
WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT,
WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND INLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
SUN. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TEXAS TUE, THEN MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF BY LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT,
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT NEAR UP TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS
FEATURE. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5
TO 8 FT DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, EXCEPT
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS NEAR COSTA RICA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS UNTIL UNTIL MONDAY. AFTERWARD, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BETWEEN MODERATE AND FRESH. EXCEPT OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WELL EAST OF BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N55W TO NEAR 28N64W, THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO BEYOND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH,
FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N48W TO BEYOND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 60 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES. AT THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW NEAR 25N30W ALONG WITH ITS REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 28W
AND 31W. CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE AZORES ACROSS
31N37W TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SSE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FORMER SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TO THE WEST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH N TO
NE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND FLORIDA/SOUTHER GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF
35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N80W TO ST AUGUSTINE WED AFTERNOON, AND
FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT
WEEK.
CHAN
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