472
AXNT20 KNHC 080612
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN DEC 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
OF SIERRA LEONE CLOSE TO 07N12W, TO 05N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N22W, TO 02N30W, TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W, TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 46W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA, JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF NW CUBA, THROUGH THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, TO 21N92W OFF THE NW CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N92W, TO A 1020 MB 27N95.5W
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1020 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER, TO 23N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE
1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BEYOND 28N97W INLAND IN TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 26N
NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. FRESH TO MODERATE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODERATE SEAS COVER MOST OF THE GULF. ONE EXCEPTION IS FOR SLIGHT
SEAS IN THE TAMPA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27N95.5W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 21N90W AND A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE
LOW TO 23N96W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TEXAS TUE, THEN MOVE QUICKLY SE AND
THROUGH THE BASIN BY LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG NE TO E WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
73W AND 81W. STRONG NE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 77W AND 86W, INCLUDING BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. STRONG
NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE SEAS, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS, ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA, SOUTHWESTWARD
BEYOND THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AND INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 08/0000 UTC, ARE: 0.18 IN GUADELOUPE; AND 0.06 IN CURACAO.
THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY, THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N55W, TO 26N60W 25N70W, THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS, TO 23N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 150 NM TO
200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT, FROM 20N AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
FRESH OR SLOWER WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL, ARE FROM 27N
TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W.
FRESH OR SLOWER WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN NE SWELL, ARE FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. STRONG NE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN
NE SWELL, ARE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. FRESH NE WINDS,
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN
40W AND 53W. FRESH NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE FROM 05N TO
17N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 08/0000 UTC, ARE: 0.01 IN BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 12N TO 20N. PRECIPITATION:
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND MOSTLY MODERATE TO SOME ROUGH SEAS, ARE
FROM 11N TO 26N FROM 30W EASTWARD. FRESH NE WINDS
STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS, ARE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH IS FROM 14N NORTHWARD
FROM 40W EASTWARD. A NE-TO-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 31N32W, TO A 1018 MB 28N33W LOW PRESSURE CENTER, TO
19N38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE
QUADRANT. IS ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM 31N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N80W TO ST AUGUSTINE BY
WED AFTERNOON, AND FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED
NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
MT/ERA
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