020
AXNT20 KNHC 081037
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN DEC 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
OF SIERRA LEONE CLOSE TO 07N12W TO 05N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N23W TO 00N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 09N AND E OF 32W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 29N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 20N91W, AND ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW/FRONTS WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NW GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TEXAS TUE, THEN
MOVE QUICKLY SE AND THROUGH THE BASIN BY LATE WED. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, ARE IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY, THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO MODERATE TO FRESH, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM 31N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 150 NM TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT, FROM 20N AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD. ROUGH SEAS
ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, MAINLY N OF 29N. TO THE
EAST, A 1018 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N35W, WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 20N39W. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL N OF 27N
BETWEEN 28W-38W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH
FROM 31N80W TO ST AUGUSTINE BY WED AFTERNOON, AND FROM 31N74W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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