733
AXNT20 KNHC 090557
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON DEC 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0540 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS BORDER OF NW
LIBERIA AND SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE, TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 06N21W, TO 04N31W, 01N36W 02N41W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 09N SOUTHWARD FROM 37W
EASTWARD.
..GULF OF MEXICO
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND, WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTLINE,
BETWEEN EASTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS, AND FROM EAST TEXAS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. FRESH NE WINDS ARE IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FROM 25N NORTHWARD
FROM 90W WESTWARD. FRESH SE WINDS ARE FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 90W
EASTWARD. MODERATE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS OR SO: A COLD FRONT 29N91W 24N98W.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 93W AND 97W
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST INLAND ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TEXAS TUE, PASS QUICKLY SE THROUGH THE BASIN, AND EXIT
THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU, THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, THROUGH
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO, TO 15N70W, TO THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH EASTWARD. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL ONE-THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 07N, AND THEN
WESTWARD THROUGH PANAMA, AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA, AND
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 09/0000 UTC, ARE: 0.33 IN GUADELOUPE; AND 0.01 IN CURACAO.
THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED, THEN INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N47W 28N50W 24N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 24N60W, TO 22N70W, TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF
CUBA FROM 21N TO 22N ALONG 77W. FRESH OR SLOWER WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. THE FORECAST IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS IS FOR: FRESH OR SLOWER WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS,
FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND
ROUGH SEAS, ARE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 25N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W,
INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND
54W. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N37W, TO 24N40W 17N44W.
PRECIPITATION: BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WAS ABOVE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED. FRESH NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 420 NM TO
480 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N16W 23N32W 09N41W 13N60W. STRONG NE
WINDS ARE FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 26W.
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM 28N47W TO 24N60W WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MON. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM 31N78W TO FORT PIERCE, FLORIDA, BY WED
AFTERNOON, AND FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA WED NIGHT. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MT/ERA
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