186
AXNT20 KNHC 100025
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON DEC 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINNING ON TUE EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF MAINLY WEST OF 92W BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THAT TIME.
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF BY THU AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE BASIN AND PUSHES FARTHER EAST. ROUGH SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR DETAILS.
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AGADIR MARINE ZONE,
EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10/0600 UTC.
PLEASE VISIT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N20W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N20W THROUGH 03N35W TO NORTH OF BELEM, BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 180 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THESE FEATURES EAST OF 37W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON A GALE WARNING.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF
STATES ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, NORTH
OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO NORTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW
WINDS ALONG WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE WEST-CENTRAL,
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SSE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TEXAS
EARLY ON TUE, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF,
EXITING THE REGION WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A DOUBLE-BARREL HIGH OF 1025 MB NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO CHANNEL
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH
TO STRONG ENE TRADES WITH SEAS AT 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT
THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE
NE SWELL ARE FOUND NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH
ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, THE DOUBLE-BARREL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ALLOWING THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO BETWEEN MODERATE AND FRESH, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN WED NIGHT AND THU, THEN BECOME STATIONARY THU
NIGHT FROM EAST-CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME ON FRI, EXCEPT
WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG AT THE LEE OF CUBA AND
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON A GALE WARNING
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N45W TO 23N59W, THEN CONTINUES AS A
SHEAR LINE TO NEAR NORTHERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. PATCHY
SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF THE SHEAR LINE.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
A 1025 MB HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
65W AND THE GEORGIA/NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ENE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
FOUND UP TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR LINE.
AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR LINE. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEARLINE
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N79W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N69W TO
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA BY THU NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO LATE
FRI NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. A BROAD
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 61W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS
WEST OF TROUGH AND FRONT, AND ALSO NORTH OF 25N EAST OF THE
TROUGH.
CHAN
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