676
AXNT20 KNHC 101014
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE DEC 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAINLY WEST
OF 92W BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THAT TIME. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF BY THU AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE BASIN
AND PUSHES FARTHER EAST. ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N20W TO
00N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 200 NM ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES EAST OF 40W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NORTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW
WINDS ALONG WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE WEST-CENTRAL,
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TEXAS ON
TUE, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN, EXITING
THE REGION ON WED EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TONIGHT AND
WED. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO CHANNEL NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE
TRADES WITH SEAS AT 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG ENE TO
E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN MODERATE NE SWELL ARE FOUND
NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEGINNING ON WED, AND BECOME STATIONARY THU
NIGHT FROM EAST-CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST PART OF
NICARAGUA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME ON FRI, EXCEPT
IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE PULSES OF
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N46W TO 21N62W, THEN CONTINUES AS A
SHEAR LINE TO NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 150 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT,
PARTICULARLY, BETWEEN 51W AND 62W.
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF BERMUDA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 57W AND THE GEORGIA/NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ENE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT
SEAS ARE FOUND UP TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SHEAR LINE.
AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR LINE. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE WITH FRESH ENE
TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS EXIST. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF
35W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT/SHEARLINE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N79W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
WED AFTERNOON, BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N69W TO EAST-CENTRAL
CUBA BY THU NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO LATE FRI NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. A BROAD TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 61W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEST OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
ERA
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