926
AXNT20 KNHC 101614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE DEC 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN, EXITING THE
REGION ON WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
WED. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH NW
STRONG GALE CONDITIONS JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. SEAS SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 FT IN THE SW GULF WED AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU, THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR DETAILS.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE CONDITIONS: ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS
AROUND 1100 UTC INDICATE 35 KT NNE WINDS NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 11W
JUST OFFSHORE OF MOROCCO. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 13 FT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE BY TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS FROM METEOFRANCE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2 .
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OVER W AFRICA NEAR 06N11W
THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N13W TO 03N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N-07N BETWEEN 17W-33W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
AS OF 1500 UTC, A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF OF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 90W. S TO
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MODERATE TO FRESH, WHILE THE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE (CURRENTLY) MODERATE. SEAS ARE 2-5 FT
OVER THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN, EXITING THE REGION
ON WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WED.
THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG ENE
TO E TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-6 FT
ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
HONDURAS, THE CARIBBEAN IS FREE FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS,
EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BEGINNING ON WED, AND BECOME STATIONARY THU NIGHT FROM EAST-
CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST PART OF NICARAGUA. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME ON FRI, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE PULSES OF STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 21N60W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE TO JUST NORTH OF THE SE BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN
47W-57W. WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE SHEARLINE ARE ENE FRESH TO
STRONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB BERMUDA-AZORES NEAR 36N45W WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HEAR 27N80W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITH THE ITCZ IS
FORCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES. SEAS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE RIDGE ARE 3-5 FT WITH 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE. THE
EXCEPTION IS FOR STRONG TO GALE FORCE NNE WINDS NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND MOROCCO DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES
HIGH AND A LOW OVER WESTERN ALGERIA. SEAS ARE 9-13 FT IN THE AREA
OF THESE STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT AND
SHEARLINE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE BASIN WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WED AFTERNOON, BECOME
STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N69W TO EAST-CENTRAL CUBA BY THU NIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO LATE FRI NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 60W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG E TO SE WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
LANDSEA/RUBIO
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