504
AXNT20 KNHC 102357
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED DEC 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN, EXITING THE
REGION WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
WED. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH NW
STRONG GALE CONDITIONS JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. SEAS SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 17 FT IN THE SW GULF WED AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER THE BASIN BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-
FORCE OUT OF THE S AND SW AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WED. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WILL CONTINUE WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ON THU.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OVER W AFRICA NEAR 06N11W
THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N12W TO 02N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 15W AND 35W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
AS OF 1800 UTC, A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF OF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND EXTENDS FROM 29N91W TO 26N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N WEST OF
90W. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF, WITH SEAS
TO 7 FT OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE BASIN, EXITING THE REGION ON WED EVENING. STRONG TO
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS, IN
THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING, WITH NW STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND
17 FT IN THE SW GULF EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU AND FRI,
AND FRESH NE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE 1006 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG ENE
TO E TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4 TO
6 FT ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST
NORTH OF HONDURAS, THE CARIBBEAN IS FREE FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, EXCEPT OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY
WED EVENING, AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM EAST-CENTRAL CUBA TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA THU NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME ON FRI, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE PULSES OF STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N44W TO 21N53W, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH. LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE,
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB BERMUDA-AZORES NEAR 37N45W WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HEAR 27N80W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITH THE ITCZ IS
FORCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES. SEAS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE RIDGE ARE 3-5 FT WITH 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE. THE
EXCEPTION IS FOR STRONG NNE WINDS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
MOROCCO DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A
LOW OVER WESTERN ALGERIA. SEAS ARE 9-11 FT IN THE AREA OF THESE
STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE BASIN BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE-FORCE OUT OF THE S AND SW AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WED. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WILL CONTINUE
WED EVENING BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
ON THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ON WED NIGHT, BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N69W TO EAST-
CENTRAL CUBA BY THU NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO LATE FRI
NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. FARTHER E, A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N46W TO 21N51W. THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TROUGH AT LEAST FRI. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NE, AND BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE W.
ADAMS
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